Brown and Out?

First there was the Crewe and Nantwich defeat to the Tories, the embarrassment of Labour finishing 5th in Henley (we Greens were 3rd), a failure to stand in Haltemprice and Holden against David Davis and finally a major defeat in a Glasgow East stronghold to the SNP.

It now looks like the writing is on the wall for Brown as Prime Minister. A much more vulnerable seat, Glenrothes, again with the SNP in second place, now has a vacancy, after the sad death of its sitting Labour MP. It is in a constituency that is next to his own, in his backyard, as it were. Analysis from BBC Scotland here.

Defeat for Labour in this byelection will mean the end of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister. There can be no other outcome. His own members, union leaders and MPs will not support him as Prime Minister if Labour cannot hold this seat.

But the byelection is also a last chance for the beleaguered Prime Minister. I'd be astonished if anyone mounted a leadership challenge beforehand, which gives him until November to turn things round. If he can hold the seat, despite higher inflation, rising unemployment and a struggling government, he'll look ready to tough things out. The corner will have been turned. Journalists might even start talking about the Brown comeback.

As things stand now, I expect to see a new Labour leader in early 2009, who may be inclined to hold off an election until the last possible General Election date, in June 2010, if he or she is allowed to do so by the media.