Greens, Lib Dems and the Next General Election

[This is an electoral hack's kind of post - if you prefer policy or personal stuff, I strongly advise you skip it!]

It is no secret that we are targeting three seats at the next General Election. Brighton Pavilion, Norwich South and Lewisham Deptford. To win one is essential, two would open up all kind of possibilities for the future, and all three would signify a paradigm shift in British politics.

Who has the most to lose from the Greens getting established as a Westminster party? Well it is clear that it would be the Liberal Democrats, and you only have to listen to Nick Clegg's words in this BBC Look East report about the Green campaign in Norwich North to see why. Right now the Lib Dems are able to seem like the best of three bad options for environmentally concerned voters, but if Greens were elected to Westminster, that argument would be fundamentally undermined.

Norwich North is very interesting for us as Greens, because I think it shows exactly how the Lib Dems are going to run against us in constituencies where we are a threat. Caroline Lucas, Adrian Ramsay and Darren Johnson look likely to have to face personalised attacks, smears and negative campaigning from the Lib Dems. The purpose of such campaigns will not be intended to help the Lib Dems win, but are mainly about ensuring that we will not.

Before I continue, I'm going to throw in one caveat at this point. We are at this point assuming that the Lib Dems, who are able to throw far more financial resources at a byelection than us, are successful at keeping the Greens in Norwich from making much progress. The current political climate means no one is exactly sure how this byelection will turn out. Based on some of the comments from Conservatives and Labour, there is a feeling that Lib Dem tactics may backfire. If they were to do so spectacularly, or we spring an incredible result in Norwich North, there might be a rethink from the Lib Dems.

If the Lib Dems finish 3rd, just ahead of us in Norwich North, or 2nd with us in 3rd, they will feel that they have succeeded, and will be emboldened to use the same campaigning tactics at the General Election. It is vital we have a debate now about how to respond or even prevent these "spoiler" tactics.

Firstly, there is the crucial factor of Green voters. We know that even without a Green candidate, two out of three Green supporters will still vote for the least worst alternative. It is likely that in areas where the Lib Dems are fighting the Tories, or the Lib Dems are fighting Labour, the absence of a Green candidate will disproportionately benefit the Lib Dems. So the first response or preparation ahead of the General Election is to select candidates in every marginal Lib Dem constituency and target seat.

Secondly, we know that at any election, there is a "squeeze" factor if you are not seen as one of the two main contenders for a seat. The Lib Dems will work hard to squeeze the Green vote, and recent moves on Trident and touchy feely words on the environment nationally show that in their target seats and those they are defending, the Lib Dems are going to try and be very nice to "green" voters. We won't see any negative attacks on the Greens in these constituencies or in the national media. There will be a lot of gushing about how the Lib Dems are the best party in Westminster on the environment.

Finally, the Lib Dems are actually facing a very hard election. It has shades of 1992 about it, with a seemingly out on its feet government faced with a resurgent opposition, albeit one that doesn't really have the trust of floating voters. Lots can still happen between now and polling day, but there is a serious danger of the Lib Dems themselves being squeezed, as Labour voters turn out again (perhaps for a new leader or out of fear of the Tories) and natural Tories enthusiastically back Cameron rather than tactically back their local Lib Dem challenger. The odds are on the Lib Dems losing rather than gaining seats.

So the debate we need to have is about seats like Guildford. Days after the 2005 General Election I was contacted (I was our national Election Co-ordinator at the time) by a disgruntled Lib Dem complaining that we had cost them the seat. Now apart from the arrogance that demonstrated, and the sense of entitlement to "green" votes the caller obviously felt, he probably had a point. The margin was very tight. If we hadn't stood, the Lib Dems might have held the seat.

Given the tactics used by the Lib Dems in Norwich North, I think there can only be one response, and that is to prepare thoroughly to contest every marginal Lib Dem seat, even those with good incumbents. In all cases we should run a positive campaign, avoiding any personal attacks of the kind typified by the Lib Dems in Norwich North, but also here in Liverpool at a council level. However, crucially and factually, I believe we should point out the Greens as an ethical alternative in contrast to the shortcomings and inconsistencies of the Lib Dems, Labour and the Conservatives on both the environment and expenses.

In order to achieve this, we'll probably need to raise around £25,000 in extra deposits (we have already selected, based on local circumstances, in a number of these seats), and a further £35,000 to £40,000 to ensure that each constituency receives a Green Party freepost leaflet with the kind of messages outlined above. Given the figures I've just seen on membership growth and increased national income, this is now very possible without any reduction in funds to the three target constituencies.

If we have made these preparations, then perhaps the Lib Dem leadership will think seriously about the need to avoid repeating the negative attacks we've seen as a general approach to combating the Greens. Without real consequences for the Liberal Democrats nationally, I do not think that we can expect them to change their approach to us. While negative politics is not always successful, it can have an impact on turnout of possible supporters.

I'd like, if possible, for us to avoid tactics that would lead to less Lib Dem MPs (and therefore reduces the prospects of a "hung" Parliament and real prospects of electoral reform) and the loss of some good Lib Dem parliamentarians. We actually want a Parliament with more diversity, not less, that will include Green MPs. Yes, that may pose a strategic threat to Nick Clegg's party in the long term, but you should not be afraid of political competition, ever.

So if you've read this as a Green and it makes sense, start the debate in your regional party (except London obviously, where a full slate is on the cards already) about where you will be prepared to stand candidates. We should also not be afraid of letting the Lib Dems know what we are thinking on this, and a letter from our party Chair requesting that the Lib Dems refrain from personal attacks on Green candidates might also be in order.