Given that today saw unemployment at its highest level since the last Conservative (led) government in 1994, inflation running at nearly 3% above the government target and the economy bumping along the bottom, it is a strange question to ask. I'll make clear that I don't think it is likely, but I do think that we should consider this possibility and be adequately prepared.
Yesterday there were three opinion polls, two showing the Tories drawing level with Labour and the final one showing them 2 points ahead in the polls. This is a knee jerk public reaction to Cameron's use of the UK veto at the emergency EU summit. It has been popular. As a result there has been some chatter online from some Tories and some writers suggesting that a spring election should be considered.
So how could this come about:
- Splits in the coalition over Europe and other issues continue and Cameron eventually says he has to call an election because the Lib Dems are sabotaging the coalition (or they leave it)
- The Tories are the first off the blocks to offer a referendum on the EU in their manifesto (probably a 3 way one similar to the SNP offer in Scotland)
- Ed Miliband continues to struggle as Labour leader, and will be seen as untested and unelectable by the public, not to mention unsupported by many in his own party
- Cameron would be convinced he could mop up the anti-EU vote of the hard right (UKIP got 3% in 2010, potentially costing the Tories 10 seats)
The outcome that Lib Dems lose seats to the Tories in the south as Labour voters desert them and don't vote tactically (a swing of 5% to the Tories would give them 20 seats). All else being equal, this would lead to a Tory majority of 15+ and a term that runs to 2017, with Scottish independence "Yes" vote potentially locking the opposition parties out for a generation.
Even for an outside possibility we Greens must prepare for this possibility and do so urgently. Caroline Lucas would have a strong chance of retaining our seat in Brighton Pavilion despite what will be a no doubt fearsome assault by the red and blue parties but what would be crucial is the rest of the national party mobilising to stand as many candidates as possible, and that means running selections in January and raising the multitude of £500 deposits we'll need to contest more than half of the 650 constituencies.
Let's keep an eye on the situation for now.
1 comments:
Peter, I’ve only just noticed this entry so sorry for replying to it rather late, but in case no-one else has said this, the scenario you suggest won’t happen. This is simply because the old days of the Prime Minister going to the Queen and asking for an election are over, thanks to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (a not very well publicised piece of legislation - hence many political activists being unaware of its provisions). General Elections are now fixed for every five years, unless there is a vote of no confidence in the government and an alternative government can’t be formed within 14 days, or if two-thirds of MPs support a vote for an early election. Neither of these scenarios is at all likely - the Tories won’t no confidence themselves, and the LibDems won’t try and collapse the government with the support of Labour because they know what the electoral consequences would be; and as for two-thirds of MPs supporting an election... So basically, barring an Irish-style meltdown with an IMF bailout effectively forcing an election, the next GE is not going to be until when it is planned to be, in May 2015.
The good news in all this is that the Monarch no longer decides when to dissolve Parliament (a much-abused process, as they always acted at the request of the PM) – another small step on the painfully slow march towards proper democracy in the UK.
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