Salmond Fishing

So David Cameron has seen fit to try and influence the Scottish vote on independence. Probably not his smartest move, but it is still by no means certain how Scotland will vote, whenever a referendum is held.

My own feeling (as an Anglo-Scot now settled in Liverpool) is that it nudges Scotland a little closer to independence, but that the SNP and Alex Salmond in particular, won't take kindly to Tory and Lib Dem attempts to overrule them from Westminster. So as Cameron tries to catch Salmond, he might find that his rod will be used to beat him.

I've speculated before about what would happen in the event that the UK was to hold a straight yes/no referendum on membership of the EU. In the current climate, England would certainly vote to leave, but I doubt Scotland would. So if the First Minister wants to wreak havok south of the border, he could do worse that ignore Cameron's deadline but in the run up to the Euro Election in 2014 announce that not only will the SNP hold a referendum on independence, but that he will include a question or questions about whether an independent Scotland should remain in the EU.

Cameron might look Prime Ministerial at the moment, but as many Scottish politicians have discovered, catching Alex Salmond out isn't easy. I look forward to seeing what he and the SNP will do in response.