31 July 2013

Electoral Reform Society European Election Poll

I have to admit to be being pleasantly surprised by the findings of a substantial poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of the Electoral Reform Society. They asked 8000 representative people how they would vote in an Open and Closed list European Election. The results were as follows:

Labour 30%
UKIP 25%
Conservatives 23%
Greens 12%
Lib Dems 10%

Now this is not a typical poll because they offered only five options, which ignores that the BNP and other parties gained nearly 15% of the vote in 2009. Even if you adjust the figures to allow for the same vote for "others" in 2014, the results would be (hat tip to the www.votetalk.co.uk website):

Lab 25.5%
UKIP 21.25%
Con 19.5%
Green 10.2%
LD 8.5%

These latter poll ratings would be at the most cautious end of the range, given that the BNP are likely to poll substantially worse than they did in 2009. The implications for us are very positive. In the North West, we would win a Euro seat. We were very close last time, just 0.3% away and we would gain a seat, with the Lib Dems struggling to hold onto their seat, and Nick Griffin definitely losing his.

The poll also confirms what I have been saying for a long time. This election is about collapsing the coalition. A Euro Election where the Conservatives finish 3rd, behind Labour and UKIP, with the Lib Dems finishing 5th behind the Greens, will finish things off early in the coalition government, as MPs in the latter party scramble to save their seats in 2015. Votes for the Greens, especially from former Lib Dem voters, will help topple this awful coalition. I just wish the main opposition had not just promised to stick with their spending plans for first year of any new government.

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