Often we Greens are guilty of underselling ourselves, showing too much modesty and we don't get our message across.
So tell everyone you know, tell them twice, even tell them a third time. We are going to win a seat at the next General Election.
Forecast UK predicts, and has been consistently predicting since 2006, that the Greens will win the Brighton Pavilion seat.
With the latest sleazes afflicting the House of Lords, and the Scottish Greens punching above their weight again in Holyrood, the time has come to get Greens into Westminster.
An election must take place before June 2010, with the most likely date a simultaneous Local / General Election in May 2010 (so Labour can regain some council seats in heartland areas and start trying to rebuild their political base).
One thing is certain - Labour will lose their majority at the next election. What we as Greens should try and influence is the whether or not the result is a Hung Parliament.
29 January 2009
26 January 2009
Building An Anti-Racist Coalition
At the Convention of the Left this Saturday, Respect Parliamentary Candidate for Manchester Blackley, Dr Kay Phillips, announced that Respect would not be contesting the North West region, but would play a strong part in defeating the BNP in the European Elections. I've been talking to Kay and others in North West Respect, who have been really pragmatic and keen to work with us against the BNP.
In an ideal world, voters would have a transferable vote, allowing Respect supporters to vote for their party first, and then pass on their second preference. Unfortunately that isn't the system in place for the European Elections, so it is vital that every vote counts against the BNP.
We therefore welcome the endorsement Kay has given us, in urging Respect members and supporters to back the Greens, which is a pragmatic response in making Left votes effective to help us prevent Nick Griffin getting elected as a North West Euro MP. The race for 4th place really matters in our region.
Labour MP John Cruddas and Searchlight campaigner Nick Lowles have pointed out that as little as 7.5% will be enough for a 4th placed party to win a seat in the North West region in 2009. Combined support for the Greens and Respect was 6.8% in the 2004 European Elections, more than the 6.4% gained by the BNP.
We can be pretty sure that the BNP vote is going to go up, and that UKIP's vote is going to go down compared to 2004. But no one knows exactly by how much? In London, UKIP's vote collapsed in 2008, but almost all of the UKIP voters returned to the Tories, with the BNP seeing only a very small gain. Unfortunately it was enough to put them over the 5% threshold and win a seat.
In the North West region, even a 1% increase in the BNP vote puts them into contention for a seat, but only if they are the 4th placed party. Our job as Greens and anti-racist campaigners is to make sure the BNP are 5th. Then they would need 9% or more. In an ideal world, UKIP might even beat them and leave them in 6th place, but for now we are concentrating on the campaigning we can do.
As Greens, we need to dispassionately, factually and accurately make the case for people to make a tactical anti-racist vote for us. We might get 8% even if we didn't mention this issue, but the facts are that under D'Hondt, placings matter for the final seat. I'm sure Labour and the Liberal Democrats will also argue their case, but it just isn't as strong as the one we are making.
There will be more to come on this subject, as former a Labour PPC and former councillors from Labour and the Liberal Democrats also explain why anti-racist voters should back the Greens. For now, I'd like to thank Kay for her gracious endorsement of us on Saturday, and look forward to working with all activists who want to keep an openly racist party out of mainstream British politics.
In an ideal world, voters would have a transferable vote, allowing Respect supporters to vote for their party first, and then pass on their second preference. Unfortunately that isn't the system in place for the European Elections, so it is vital that every vote counts against the BNP.
We therefore welcome the endorsement Kay has given us, in urging Respect members and supporters to back the Greens, which is a pragmatic response in making Left votes effective to help us prevent Nick Griffin getting elected as a North West Euro MP. The race for 4th place really matters in our region.
Labour MP John Cruddas and Searchlight campaigner Nick Lowles have pointed out that as little as 7.5% will be enough for a 4th placed party to win a seat in the North West region in 2009. Combined support for the Greens and Respect was 6.8% in the 2004 European Elections, more than the 6.4% gained by the BNP.
We can be pretty sure that the BNP vote is going to go up, and that UKIP's vote is going to go down compared to 2004. But no one knows exactly by how much? In London, UKIP's vote collapsed in 2008, but almost all of the UKIP voters returned to the Tories, with the BNP seeing only a very small gain. Unfortunately it was enough to put them over the 5% threshold and win a seat.
In the North West region, even a 1% increase in the BNP vote puts them into contention for a seat, but only if they are the 4th placed party. Our job as Greens and anti-racist campaigners is to make sure the BNP are 5th. Then they would need 9% or more. In an ideal world, UKIP might even beat them and leave them in 6th place, but for now we are concentrating on the campaigning we can do.
As Greens, we need to dispassionately, factually and accurately make the case for people to make a tactical anti-racist vote for us. We might get 8% even if we didn't mention this issue, but the facts are that under D'Hondt, placings matter for the final seat. I'm sure Labour and the Liberal Democrats will also argue their case, but it just isn't as strong as the one we are making.
There will be more to come on this subject, as former a Labour PPC and former councillors from Labour and the Liberal Democrats also explain why anti-racist voters should back the Greens. For now, I'd like to thank Kay for her gracious endorsement of us on Saturday, and look forward to working with all activists who want to keep an openly racist party out of mainstream British politics.
23 January 2009
What's Left?
My uncle was a miner, my grandfather and great grandfather were too. My other great grandfather was blacklisted after the General Strike in 1926. My father was the first person of his generation not to go down the mine, instead getting a job in the merchant navy. I was the first person from my family to go to university. For my father and mother's family alike, education ended at 15.
I was brought up as a working class kid in Scotland, where support for your football team depended on what religion you were, but voting Labour was a given that crossed the sectarian divide. So why am I a Green and not a socialist or still in the Labour Party?
My political awareness dates back to being asked "Carter or Reagan?" at the gates of my school back in 1980, and asking questions about nuclear weapons and war as a child. By the end of that decade, Thatcherism had forced our family to leave to our home in search of new employment, I was studying Philosophy and Economics at A level, and regularly marching in London as a member of Amnesty International. Special mention goes to a radical friend of mine at what was hardly a radical school, John Phillips, who later went on live and work on the West Bank.
Environmental concerns hit the headlines in 1989 and I joined the Green Party as a sixth form student. The party polled 15% in the European Elections that year. It had a radical impact. Everyone on the political spectrum sat up and took notice of the impact aerosols and refrigeration gases were having on the Ozone layer. There was international action (Green results across Europe had been strong) and real change followed. However the Green Party from 1989 to 1991 hardly impressed me, and like many others I left, preferring instead to join environmental action groups.
In 1992 in the midst of a major recession (pardon the pun) the General Election looked like a foregone conclusion, but I, like many other people in politics woke up to a shocking and stark truth. Another five years of Conservative government, despite the errors, despite the increasing sleaze around that government. That said, it was a good election to lose, much like next year's General Election will be.
When John Smith became Labour leader, I joined the Labour Party. My uncle, a union man, said Smith was basically a good man. I held huge disagreements with Labour, I didn't necessarily trust their policies, but the alternative looked like a one party state. I left in 1997, in huge disappointment after the Labour landslide that brought Blair to power. Despite the most emphatic mandate and a watershed moment in UK politics, the leadership of Labour, that same leadership that promised so much from 1994 to 1997, failed to deliver on its potential.
Whatever criticisms I make of Labour, I do recognise that there were some positive things that were done in terms of welfare, the introduction of the minimum wage and the introduction of limited proportional representation in elections for the devolved assemblies and the European Parliament. But the promises that were broken and the wasted opportunities of the last 12 years far outweigh these. I won't go into all of these now (it would take too long) but I will cite a green example.
In 1997 Labour promised of a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions over 1990 levels by 2010. Instead, as measured by the government today, CO2 emissions in the UK have gone up. 12 years of potential action have been wasted in failing to address Climate Change, creating sustainable UK based jobs, increased energy efficiency in homes and protection from the fossil fuel based price rises we see today. This is despite the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level "that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".
Five years of Conservative inaction, followed by twelve years of Labour's severe lack of action (there has been some, but nowhere near enough). The Liberal Democrats capitalised on the Green Party's internal wrangling and amateur set up after the 1989 result, to try and rebrand themselves since then, as a party that cares for the environment. Despite this, in local government they have continued to back airport expansion, road expansion and failed to deliver coherent environmental progress.
So what's left, or rather, who is left? There are parties offering an alternative to neo-liberal free market thinking that leaves our public transport and energy infrastructure in the private sector, despite the biggest threat to the British values and society we have ever faced. The Greens are by far the largest in terms of elected representatives, but there are socialists in various different groupings, who share much of the Green social and environmental agenda.
Tomorrow, I'll be speaking at the Convention of the Left about a Green New Deal. Time is short, perhaps leaving us just 4 years to make a difference. Antarctica is warming not cooling (a popular misconception or excuse for inaction), trees are dying because of climatic change in North America and methane release from the melting permafrost has the potential to accelerate global warming far beyond anything we currently envisage.
Finally, the way we will deal with the huge societal impacts of Climate Change will depend very much on the politics of the future, which can either be tolerant or totalitarian. Here in the North West region, we are at the front line of that battleground in the Euro Elections this year. The BNP are growing fast as a political force, and the election of their Chairman to the European Parliament will give them a political platform and sustained funding during what looks set to be the biggest recession since the 1930s.
If the electorate of Germany had in the depression of 1930 turned to democratic and progressive parties, rather than to the far right, our history would be very different, but it was that election that put Hitler's party on the trajectory they needed to take power. I have no doubt that should the BNP gain a foothold at the European level, they will grow. Whatever skin colour you happen to be, the prospect of a party that bans ethnic groups of people from becoming members (the Nazis were anti-Jewish from their inception), should be a salutory lesson.
So I will work with the Left, despite the current fragmentation, and offer my personal support to initiatives like the Convention of the Left, because the bigger political agenda absolutely demands it. It is the campaigning we do together in the next few months that will shape British politics, not just now, but for the future. That can either be a politics based on positive work, enabling communities and tackling tough political issues in a mature way, or we may see the rise of populism, nationalism and associated political intimidation from the far right.
Your support is welcome and I hope to see many of you in Manchester tomorrow.
I was brought up as a working class kid in Scotland, where support for your football team depended on what religion you were, but voting Labour was a given that crossed the sectarian divide. So why am I a Green and not a socialist or still in the Labour Party?
My political awareness dates back to being asked "Carter or Reagan?" at the gates of my school back in 1980, and asking questions about nuclear weapons and war as a child. By the end of that decade, Thatcherism had forced our family to leave to our home in search of new employment, I was studying Philosophy and Economics at A level, and regularly marching in London as a member of Amnesty International. Special mention goes to a radical friend of mine at what was hardly a radical school, John Phillips, who later went on live and work on the West Bank.
Environmental concerns hit the headlines in 1989 and I joined the Green Party as a sixth form student. The party polled 15% in the European Elections that year. It had a radical impact. Everyone on the political spectrum sat up and took notice of the impact aerosols and refrigeration gases were having on the Ozone layer. There was international action (Green results across Europe had been strong) and real change followed. However the Green Party from 1989 to 1991 hardly impressed me, and like many others I left, preferring instead to join environmental action groups.
In 1992 in the midst of a major recession (pardon the pun) the General Election looked like a foregone conclusion, but I, like many other people in politics woke up to a shocking and stark truth. Another five years of Conservative government, despite the errors, despite the increasing sleaze around that government. That said, it was a good election to lose, much like next year's General Election will be.
When John Smith became Labour leader, I joined the Labour Party. My uncle, a union man, said Smith was basically a good man. I held huge disagreements with Labour, I didn't necessarily trust their policies, but the alternative looked like a one party state. I left in 1997, in huge disappointment after the Labour landslide that brought Blair to power. Despite the most emphatic mandate and a watershed moment in UK politics, the leadership of Labour, that same leadership that promised so much from 1994 to 1997, failed to deliver on its potential.
Whatever criticisms I make of Labour, I do recognise that there were some positive things that were done in terms of welfare, the introduction of the minimum wage and the introduction of limited proportional representation in elections for the devolved assemblies and the European Parliament. But the promises that were broken and the wasted opportunities of the last 12 years far outweigh these. I won't go into all of these now (it would take too long) but I will cite a green example.
In 1997 Labour promised of a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions over 1990 levels by 2010. Instead, as measured by the government today, CO2 emissions in the UK have gone up. 12 years of potential action have been wasted in failing to address Climate Change, creating sustainable UK based jobs, increased energy efficiency in homes and protection from the fossil fuel based price rises we see today. This is despite the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level "that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".
Five years of Conservative inaction, followed by twelve years of Labour's severe lack of action (there has been some, but nowhere near enough). The Liberal Democrats capitalised on the Green Party's internal wrangling and amateur set up after the 1989 result, to try and rebrand themselves since then, as a party that cares for the environment. Despite this, in local government they have continued to back airport expansion, road expansion and failed to deliver coherent environmental progress.
So what's left, or rather, who is left? There are parties offering an alternative to neo-liberal free market thinking that leaves our public transport and energy infrastructure in the private sector, despite the biggest threat to the British values and society we have ever faced. The Greens are by far the largest in terms of elected representatives, but there are socialists in various different groupings, who share much of the Green social and environmental agenda.
Tomorrow, I'll be speaking at the Convention of the Left about a Green New Deal. Time is short, perhaps leaving us just 4 years to make a difference. Antarctica is warming not cooling (a popular misconception or excuse for inaction), trees are dying because of climatic change in North America and methane release from the melting permafrost has the potential to accelerate global warming far beyond anything we currently envisage.
Finally, the way we will deal with the huge societal impacts of Climate Change will depend very much on the politics of the future, which can either be tolerant or totalitarian. Here in the North West region, we are at the front line of that battleground in the Euro Elections this year. The BNP are growing fast as a political force, and the election of their Chairman to the European Parliament will give them a political platform and sustained funding during what looks set to be the biggest recession since the 1930s.
If the electorate of Germany had in the depression of 1930 turned to democratic and progressive parties, rather than to the far right, our history would be very different, but it was that election that put Hitler's party on the trajectory they needed to take power. I have no doubt that should the BNP gain a foothold at the European level, they will grow. Whatever skin colour you happen to be, the prospect of a party that bans ethnic groups of people from becoming members (the Nazis were anti-Jewish from their inception), should be a salutory lesson.
So I will work with the Left, despite the current fragmentation, and offer my personal support to initiatives like the Convention of the Left, because the bigger political agenda absolutely demands it. It is the campaigning we do together in the next few months that will shape British politics, not just now, but for the future. That can either be a politics based on positive work, enabling communities and tackling tough political issues in a mature way, or we may see the rise of populism, nationalism and associated political intimidation from the far right.
Your support is welcome and I hope to see many of you in Manchester tomorrow.
19 January 2009
What is the Worst Case Scenario?
Whenever the subject of Climate Change is discussed in the media, the changes that are forecast tend to be in the middle range. Even these provoke howls from the diminishing number of Climate Change deniers. But what if these middle range assumptions are wrong? What if the effects of Climate Change accelerate rapidly?
Our government has just announced a third runway at Heathrow, we are yet to see if the incoming US administration will have the political resources to keep Climate Change high on the agenda and there is a sense that the recession has somehow downgraded the importance of the green agenda (I would argue the opposite). What if through inertia, a lack of political courage and national self interest, we fail to act globally on this issue.
Jim Hansen, outlines some of the worst case scenario thinking. He believes that glacial melting in Greenland and Antarctica will accelerate. This would lead to sea level rises of 1 to 2 metres this century. He believes that President Obama effectively will have 4 years to save the world.
There are concerns such as rain in Antarctica accelerating ice melt, reduced albedo leading to runaway warming at the north pole and the unpredictable impact of methane gas releases from permafrost. All of these have the potential to warm the world far more quickly than current forecasts predict.
How quickly will sea levels rise? A look at rising sea levels in the Holocene shows that natural processes alone led to a rise of sea level of around 12 metres from 6000BC to 5000BC. You can have a look at what sea level rise for your neighbourhood will look like here.
Quicker warming would mean some immediate effects for people in the UK? A rise of one or two metres in sea level would inundate most dockside redevelopments of the past 20 years with repeated and increasing levels of flooding. Storm surges would swamp flood defences with increasing regularity. A warmer climate would mean pressure on fresh water supplies and perversely also might mean a less powerful North Atlantic flow and much colder winters. I don't particularly like the idea of British winters similar to Eastern Canada's climate, which is the same latitude as us.
The bigger deal is that a warmer world will mean huge regional changes in climate, leading to shortages in food and fresh water. The oils over war and ideology of the 20th Century are likely to pale into insignificance if national self interest overcomes global partnership.
Talking about sea level rise is a visible reminder that huge changes are on the way, but it is the social, political and military consequences of Climate Change in a heavily armed world, that should be of huge concern to everyone.
Our government has just announced a third runway at Heathrow, we are yet to see if the incoming US administration will have the political resources to keep Climate Change high on the agenda and there is a sense that the recession has somehow downgraded the importance of the green agenda (I would argue the opposite). What if through inertia, a lack of political courage and national self interest, we fail to act globally on this issue.
Jim Hansen, outlines some of the worst case scenario thinking. He believes that glacial melting in Greenland and Antarctica will accelerate. This would lead to sea level rises of 1 to 2 metres this century. He believes that President Obama effectively will have 4 years to save the world.
There are concerns such as rain in Antarctica accelerating ice melt, reduced albedo leading to runaway warming at the north pole and the unpredictable impact of methane gas releases from permafrost. All of these have the potential to warm the world far more quickly than current forecasts predict.
How quickly will sea levels rise? A look at rising sea levels in the Holocene shows that natural processes alone led to a rise of sea level of around 12 metres from 6000BC to 5000BC. You can have a look at what sea level rise for your neighbourhood will look like here.
Quicker warming would mean some immediate effects for people in the UK? A rise of one or two metres in sea level would inundate most dockside redevelopments of the past 20 years with repeated and increasing levels of flooding. Storm surges would swamp flood defences with increasing regularity. A warmer climate would mean pressure on fresh water supplies and perversely also might mean a less powerful North Atlantic flow and much colder winters. I don't particularly like the idea of British winters similar to Eastern Canada's climate, which is the same latitude as us.
The bigger deal is that a warmer world will mean huge regional changes in climate, leading to shortages in food and fresh water. The oils over war and ideology of the 20th Century are likely to pale into insignificance if national self interest overcomes global partnership.
Talking about sea level rise is a visible reminder that huge changes are on the way, but it is the social, political and military consequences of Climate Change in a heavily armed world, that should be of huge concern to everyone.
16 January 2009
Flying Blind
No one knows where the effects that we will feel from a much warmer world will stop. We do know that cutting aviation emissions will cut overall CO2 emissions, and halting the expansion of air travel will reduce upwards pressure on emissions.
This is about our future and airport expansion is the litmus test of political will. The Labour Party has morally failed the British people as the party of government and will be voted out of power at the next General Election.
But the leaders of all three parties are complicit in this failure. Nick Clegg and David Cameron have done nothing to stand up to the elected Liberal Democrat and Conservative councillors, in power in many councils around Britain, who continue to back airport and road expansion.
If Nick Clegg and David Cameron don't have the moral authority to lead their own councillors away from this destructive path, then we can't take them seriously. The green posturing from Labour, the Lib Dems and Conservatives is corrosive and undermines credibility in all our elected representatives.
Green wash and Green spin from red, yellow and blue embeds cynicism, hypocrisy and failure at the heart of British democracy – a democracy where MPs don't even get to vote on an issue of enormous significance, and where green issues are only key in so far as they help opposition parties to try and win seats from the government. Why else do we have the paradox of Tory and Liberal opposition for Heathrow, but Tory and Liberal support for Carlisle and Liverpool airports?
We can give Liverpool as a key example. The Liberal Democrat leader of the council actually called on local business people to make use of an air link to London in 2007, and a Lib Dem council in power for 11 years has wholeheartedly backed plans for airport expansion throughout that time.
My strong belief, and it is a position I am advocating robustly within the party, is that we must elect 2 or more Green MPs in the next General Election, and that we should use our influence as a party to bring about a Hung Parliament by contesting marginal seats in a targeted way. In places where the Lib Dems are trying to hold or gain seats, we should consider the environmental record of local their local councillors in deciding whether or not to contest those marginal seats. If as in Liverpool, that record is appalling, we should certainly stand against them as we are going to do in Wavertree, their local target seat.
Waiting for the Lib Dems to deliver PR or real environmental action is like waiting for at a bus stop with no timetable. Even if you are there when the bus arrives at the stop, the driver isn't sure where he is going or how to get there. Get on the bus and you might end up in entirely the wrong place.
If Nick Clegg ever wants respect as a leader, he has to instill a genuine sense of environmentalism in his party, rather than doing it on an issue by issue basis, with a strong correlation to what might help get local candidates elected.
This is about our future and airport expansion is the litmus test of political will. The Labour Party has morally failed the British people as the party of government and will be voted out of power at the next General Election.
But the leaders of all three parties are complicit in this failure. Nick Clegg and David Cameron have done nothing to stand up to the elected Liberal Democrat and Conservative councillors, in power in many councils around Britain, who continue to back airport and road expansion.
If Nick Clegg and David Cameron don't have the moral authority to lead their own councillors away from this destructive path, then we can't take them seriously. The green posturing from Labour, the Lib Dems and Conservatives is corrosive and undermines credibility in all our elected representatives.
Green wash and Green spin from red, yellow and blue embeds cynicism, hypocrisy and failure at the heart of British democracy – a democracy where MPs don't even get to vote on an issue of enormous significance, and where green issues are only key in so far as they help opposition parties to try and win seats from the government. Why else do we have the paradox of Tory and Liberal opposition for Heathrow, but Tory and Liberal support for Carlisle and Liverpool airports?
We can give Liverpool as a key example. The Liberal Democrat leader of the council actually called on local business people to make use of an air link to London in 2007, and a Lib Dem council in power for 11 years has wholeheartedly backed plans for airport expansion throughout that time.
My strong belief, and it is a position I am advocating robustly within the party, is that we must elect 2 or more Green MPs in the next General Election, and that we should use our influence as a party to bring about a Hung Parliament by contesting marginal seats in a targeted way. In places where the Lib Dems are trying to hold or gain seats, we should consider the environmental record of local their local councillors in deciding whether or not to contest those marginal seats. If as in Liverpool, that record is appalling, we should certainly stand against them as we are going to do in Wavertree, their local target seat.
Waiting for the Lib Dems to deliver PR or real environmental action is like waiting for at a bus stop with no timetable. Even if you are there when the bus arrives at the stop, the driver isn't sure where he is going or how to get there. Get on the bus and you might end up in entirely the wrong place.
If Nick Clegg ever wants respect as a leader, he has to instill a genuine sense of environmentalism in his party, rather than doing it on an issue by issue basis, with a strong correlation to what might help get local candidates elected.
15 January 2009
More Polling
Going back to the traditional polling, where the question is voting intention in a General Election, Populus have now published their detailed results.
Conservatives 43%
Labour 33%
Lib Dems 15%
Greens 3%
BNP 1%
UKIP 1%
SNP/Plaid 4%
As usual, this will of course understate likely support for the Greens in the Euros, but consistently the Greens poll higher than either UKIP or the BNP in these surveys, which has to be good news. For us to gain a North West seat in the Euros we almost certainly have to be the 4th placed party in the region.
Conservatives 43%
Labour 33%
Lib Dems 15%
Greens 3%
BNP 1%
UKIP 1%
SNP/Plaid 4%
As usual, this will of course understate likely support for the Greens in the Euros, but consistently the Greens poll higher than either UKIP or the BNP in these surveys, which has to be good news. For us to gain a North West seat in the Euros we almost certainly have to be the 4th placed party in the region.
10 January 2009
First Euro Election Poll
The first poll in advance of the European Elections has just been published by the Sunday Telegraph.
The figures are:
Conservatives 35%
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 15%
UKIP 7%
Green 5%
BNP 4%
SNP/Plaid Cymru 4%
We'll obviously await the more detailed regional breakdown with interest, but the surprise is UKIP. What will be interesting is to see the format of the questioning used. I'll update this when I get hold of it.
PS FYI information - the last Euro Election poll was on May 24th 2004. The figures were (actual results in brackets):
Conservatives 31% (27%)
Labour 23% (correct)
UK Independence Party 18% (16%)
Lib Dems 15% (correct)
Greens 6% (6.3%)
Others 7% (13%)
YouGov overestimated both UKIP and the Tories in 2004, but broadly the figures were correct for Labour and the Lib Dems. The figure for the Greens was pretty close, but the pre 2004 poll definitely underestimated "others". Methodology is going to be crucial to the results. More when I get it.
The figures are:
Conservatives 35%
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 15%
UKIP 7%
Green 5%
BNP 4%
SNP/Plaid Cymru 4%
We'll obviously await the more detailed regional breakdown with interest, but the surprise is UKIP. What will be interesting is to see the format of the questioning used. I'll update this when I get hold of it.
PS FYI information - the last Euro Election poll was on May 24th 2004. The figures were (actual results in brackets):
Conservatives 31% (27%)
Labour 23% (correct)
UK Independence Party 18% (16%)
Lib Dems 15% (correct)
Greens 6% (6.3%)
Others 7% (13%)
YouGov overestimated both UKIP and the Tories in 2004, but broadly the figures were correct for Labour and the Lib Dems. The figure for the Greens was pretty close, but the pre 2004 poll definitely underestimated "others". Methodology is going to be crucial to the results. More when I get it.
What is Vince Saying?
The usually inscrutable Vince Cable, has perhaps let slip a little too much in his interview with The Times today. The key quote is as follows:
...Dr Cable emphasises that the Liberal Democrats would be happy to prop up the Conservatives if they won a “moral victory” in a hung Parliament. “It would be arrogant for us to choose one or other. Whoever gets the largest number of seats . . . whether it is Conservative or Labour, we will work with either.
This is the first indication that the Lib Dems are coming to some sort of position on what to do in the event of a hung parliament, but it will be uncomfortable reading for left of centre Lib Dems. The only surprise is that this is coming from Vince Cable, and not the leader Nick Clegg, although it is clearly Vince who holds the most moral authority within their party.
Clegg announced a reshuffle yesterday, effectively demoting Steve Webb, who he had slagged off on an internal flight to Inverness.
...Dr Cable emphasises that the Liberal Democrats would be happy to prop up the Conservatives if they won a “moral victory” in a hung Parliament. “It would be arrogant for us to choose one or other. Whoever gets the largest number of seats . . . whether it is Conservative or Labour, we will work with either.
This is the first indication that the Lib Dems are coming to some sort of position on what to do in the event of a hung parliament, but it will be uncomfortable reading for left of centre Lib Dems. The only surprise is that this is coming from Vince Cable, and not the leader Nick Clegg, although it is clearly Vince who holds the most moral authority within their party.
Clegg announced a reshuffle yesterday, effectively demoting Steve Webb, who he had slagged off on an internal flight to Inverness.
9 January 2009
Appalling Local and National Standards
This really speaks for itself. My local ward councillor, convicted under the Representation of the People Act, has been cleared by the Standards Board for England.
Disgust is the word I'd use to describe my reaction to the antics of some Conservative Future members (now expelled).
We need better standards from people who are elected to or want to run for public office. We all make mistakes, but both of these cases are examples of politics gone bad.
Disgust is the word I'd use to describe my reaction to the antics of some Conservative Future members (now expelled).
We need better standards from people who are elected to or want to run for public office. We all make mistakes, but both of these cases are examples of politics gone bad.
6 January 2009
My Job
I'm not blogging about the job of being a candidate, but about the paid work I do to ensure we can pay the bills at the end of each month.
I work in the Press team for Parentline Plus which is a parenting support charity, and I have been doing so since August last year. As I've said time and again to anyone that knows me, this is the most enjoyable job I've had since I worked on security at my Student Union fifteen years ago, and some great experiences since then.
What makes a great job? I can tell you what doesn't. Selling crisps off the back of a car (1994 to 95) and giving financial advice (1995 to 97). I had trained to be a teacher and read PPE at University - selling Monster Munch and Doritos wasn't what I had anticipated doing with my life. While the Financial Advisor role I switched to was better, it wasn't sustainable. Frankly, I didn't believe in some of the stuff I was asked to sell under "best advice" guidelines.
However in 1994 the economy was still recovering from the last recession. A lesson many of today's students sadly look set to find out in the next few years, is that there isn't a lot of graduate opportunity when the economy is struggling. It took me until this decade to get employment that was worthwhile and felt like a contribution to society, as a social worker and FE/HE lecturer. I've worked in both sectors on and off for 8 years, trying to balance that work with my political activity, which has never been easy, time wise or financially.
I'm now on a 21 hour a week contract, working with some very positive and intelligent people who are trying to make a difference. I enjoy the Press work, which is something I learned to do while in the Greens. I'm also grateful for an understanding boss, which is why I'm blogging right now. My wife wasn't well today, and with a young baby to look after, there was no hesitation in letting me return home. The hours I've missed will be made up on Friday.
Flexibility in a job contract or in an employed role means flexibility both ways, not just for the employer. I'm lucky enough to have a job I enjoy, shows me flexibility, challenges me and allows me the time to campaign for election. I enjoy my work, but I'm very clear that on June 7th (results day from the election), the other work I've put in over the last nine years in politics may require me to take up an elected post. I'm ready and willing, but that decision will be up to voters in North West.
I work in the Press team for Parentline Plus which is a parenting support charity, and I have been doing so since August last year. As I've said time and again to anyone that knows me, this is the most enjoyable job I've had since I worked on security at my Student Union fifteen years ago, and some great experiences since then.
What makes a great job? I can tell you what doesn't. Selling crisps off the back of a car (1994 to 95) and giving financial advice (1995 to 97). I had trained to be a teacher and read PPE at University - selling Monster Munch and Doritos wasn't what I had anticipated doing with my life. While the Financial Advisor role I switched to was better, it wasn't sustainable. Frankly, I didn't believe in some of the stuff I was asked to sell under "best advice" guidelines.
However in 1994 the economy was still recovering from the last recession. A lesson many of today's students sadly look set to find out in the next few years, is that there isn't a lot of graduate opportunity when the economy is struggling. It took me until this decade to get employment that was worthwhile and felt like a contribution to society, as a social worker and FE/HE lecturer. I've worked in both sectors on and off for 8 years, trying to balance that work with my political activity, which has never been easy, time wise or financially.
I'm now on a 21 hour a week contract, working with some very positive and intelligent people who are trying to make a difference. I enjoy the Press work, which is something I learned to do while in the Greens. I'm also grateful for an understanding boss, which is why I'm blogging right now. My wife wasn't well today, and with a young baby to look after, there was no hesitation in letting me return home. The hours I've missed will be made up on Friday.
Flexibility in a job contract or in an employed role means flexibility both ways, not just for the employer. I'm lucky enough to have a job I enjoy, shows me flexibility, challenges me and allows me the time to campaign for election. I enjoy my work, but I'm very clear that on June 7th (results day from the election), the other work I've put in over the last nine years in politics may require me to take up an elected post. I'm ready and willing, but that decision will be up to voters in North West.
4 January 2009
Speaking Out
My son didn't sleep much last night, so at 3am I was in front of the television watching events unfolding in Gaza. Civilians are dying and to me the leaders of political parties in Israel and the leaders of Fatah and Hamas are spending time on positioning and looking after their core supporters, rather than tackling the real issues.
Yesterday, thousands of people around Britain marched to protest at the events going on in the Middle East. I'd like to cite Peter Tatchell as an example for every Green Party activist for his excellent "Israel, Hamas, Stop Killing Civilians" placard at the London demo. I think this message should be the Green Party's placard of choice at these rallies, but I also think we should raise huge concerns over humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
I spoke yesterday at the rally in Manchester [speech to be posted later below], and my key point was about children. The children of Gaza and southern Israel are being let down by the failure of their leaders to negotiate peace. Ask any parent what they want for their children, and they will say safety, freedom from fear and opportunities for the future.
The ceasefire that was in place was largely effective between the 18th June and 4th November. The BBC reported on the 15th November that it begun to break down. 19 rockets and 18 mortar shells were reported by the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs as having been fired from the Gaza strip between 18th June and the end of October. It appears that the first attacks launched during this time were by the Islamic Jihad and Fatah's al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, not Hamas. [Update - Channel 4 has now covered this issue in a news broadcast]. Now there are hundreds of rockets and both sides are at war.
A ceasefire needs to be a ceasefire but nothing is ever black and white. Just as in the conflict in Northern Ireland, despite the Provisional IRA ceasefire in the 1990s, violations continued from fringe groups such as the INLA and Real IRA. Action by these groups were not allowed to derail the peace process.
Hamas are in power in Gaza, and largely seem to have been able to keep these even more extreme elements under control. However I fear that the current actions will allow these splinter organisations to cause more, not less disruption in future. The destruction of much of Hamas's infrastructure will enable more of these splinter groups to launch attacks and to make far more difficult a ceasefire agreement.
If both sides want peace and an end to civilian deaths, both sides need to look at the violence now compared to the period between June and October. Parents and families on both side of the border should ask if the actions of their governments are truly representing them, and truly protecting their children, not just for a year, or five years, but for their lifetime.
A ceasefire and de-escalation of the violence won't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen while George Bush remains the US President. I think we'll see very soon whether President Obama has got a new vision for US foreign policy and whether he can reinvigorate a real peace process in the Middle East.
On a point of optimism, the DUP still want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK and Sinn Fein still want a united Ireland. Both sit in a power sharing Northern Ireland assembly together, working for the interests of the people they represent. Sinn Fein decommissioned its weapons without being humiliated in doing so. There are lessons to be learned from this.
I wish we could point the way to a solution, but the route to a just and lasting peace is unclear. East Jerusalem seems to be the focal point of any negotiated settlement. Perhaps a final settlement won't need to confer a finalised status for East Jerusalem, and perhaps a final settlement needs both sides to accept that "victory" (which for Hamas is still the destruction of the state of Israel) is unachievable.
Yesterday, thousands of people around Britain marched to protest at the events going on in the Middle East. I'd like to cite Peter Tatchell as an example for every Green Party activist for his excellent "Israel, Hamas, Stop Killing Civilians" placard at the London demo. I think this message should be the Green Party's placard of choice at these rallies, but I also think we should raise huge concerns over humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
I spoke yesterday at the rally in Manchester [speech to be posted later below], and my key point was about children. The children of Gaza and southern Israel are being let down by the failure of their leaders to negotiate peace. Ask any parent what they want for their children, and they will say safety, freedom from fear and opportunities for the future.
The ceasefire that was in place was largely effective between the 18th June and 4th November. The BBC reported on the 15th November that it begun to break down. 19 rockets and 18 mortar shells were reported by the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs as having been fired from the Gaza strip between 18th June and the end of October. It appears that the first attacks launched during this time were by the Islamic Jihad and Fatah's al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, not Hamas. [Update - Channel 4 has now covered this issue in a news broadcast]. Now there are hundreds of rockets and both sides are at war.
A ceasefire needs to be a ceasefire but nothing is ever black and white. Just as in the conflict in Northern Ireland, despite the Provisional IRA ceasefire in the 1990s, violations continued from fringe groups such as the INLA and Real IRA. Action by these groups were not allowed to derail the peace process.
Hamas are in power in Gaza, and largely seem to have been able to keep these even more extreme elements under control. However I fear that the current actions will allow these splinter organisations to cause more, not less disruption in future. The destruction of much of Hamas's infrastructure will enable more of these splinter groups to launch attacks and to make far more difficult a ceasefire agreement.
If both sides want peace and an end to civilian deaths, both sides need to look at the violence now compared to the period between June and October. Parents and families on both side of the border should ask if the actions of their governments are truly representing them, and truly protecting their children, not just for a year, or five years, but for their lifetime.
A ceasefire and de-escalation of the violence won't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen while George Bush remains the US President. I think we'll see very soon whether President Obama has got a new vision for US foreign policy and whether he can reinvigorate a real peace process in the Middle East.
On a point of optimism, the DUP still want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK and Sinn Fein still want a united Ireland. Both sit in a power sharing Northern Ireland assembly together, working for the interests of the people they represent. Sinn Fein decommissioned its weapons without being humiliated in doing so. There are lessons to be learned from this.
I wish we could point the way to a solution, but the route to a just and lasting peace is unclear. East Jerusalem seems to be the focal point of any negotiated settlement. Perhaps a final settlement won't need to confer a finalised status for East Jerusalem, and perhaps a final settlement needs both sides to accept that "victory" (which for Hamas is still the destruction of the state of Israel) is unachievable.
1 January 2009
Change the World in 2009
This year must be the year of the Greens. The global environmental challenge we face in the next forty years is immense. The environmental degradation, sea level rise and water shortages (that we are now no longer in a position to prevent) will be accompanied by social unrest, mass population movements and war over water supplies in some parts of the world.
Voting Green in the 2009 European Elections will be our last best hope for real action in the face of a mounting catastrophe. Billions are spent on nuclear deterrence in the face of a possible future threat, while little is being done to deal with the massive global experiment with the Earth's climate that we have undertaken, unwittingly at first, through our massive use of fossil fuels.
At a time when there are so many domestic and international issues that require our attention, a vote for a clean break with the discredited politics of red, yellow and blue is a priority. New ideas are key to reviving British politics and the Greens have plenty to put on the agenda:
- A Green New Deal: Jobs and Action on Climate Change
- An Ethical Foreign Policy: No profits from arms sales, diplomacy and defence, not aggression abroad
- State funding for political parties: Our system is corrupt, with red, yellow and blue parties currently funded by corporations and criminals
- Ethical MEPs: Of all the British parties, only the Greens score 100% for openness and transparency when questioned about their Euro expenses
We can all make personal decisions to tackle injustice. We can choose not to buy goods from oppressive regimes, we can buy Fairtrade goods with confidence, we can take direct action by letter writing or subscribe to a campaigning organisation. All of these actions make a contribution to change. Our personal choices and our campaigning actions do matter, but the world needs more than just lobbying of the existing politicians and governments.
In June 2009 voters around Britain will have a choice. The Greens are growing in size and political maturity. We are ready for the next steps, which will be to elect more Euro MPs who can crucially act in a balance of power role in the Euro Parliament, followed by the election of the first Green MPs who again seem likely to find themselves in a hung parliament.
The Euro Elections are also likely to determine the future direction of British politics for a generation. Do we really want to see the BNP emerge as Britain's fourth largest political party as UKIP's vote implodes or do we want the Greens electing the final Euro MPs in each region, keeping the BNP in the electoral oblivion their overtly racist membership policy deserves?
It is your choice for 2009. In 1999 our leader Caroline Lucas won her Euro seat in the South East region by less than 300 votes. The contribution made by each and every member and activist in that year was crucial. In 2007 she was named Ethical Politician of the year by the Observer newspaper. 300 votes less would have denied British politics a voice for change.
Will you help us? Are you one of the thousands who support the Greens but have never quite got involved?
We need good people, particularly now. Join us now or contact us. Make that difference in 2009.
Thank you.
Peter
Voting Green in the 2009 European Elections will be our last best hope for real action in the face of a mounting catastrophe. Billions are spent on nuclear deterrence in the face of a possible future threat, while little is being done to deal with the massive global experiment with the Earth's climate that we have undertaken, unwittingly at first, through our massive use of fossil fuels.
At a time when there are so many domestic and international issues that require our attention, a vote for a clean break with the discredited politics of red, yellow and blue is a priority. New ideas are key to reviving British politics and the Greens have plenty to put on the agenda:
- A Green New Deal: Jobs and Action on Climate Change
- An Ethical Foreign Policy: No profits from arms sales, diplomacy and defence, not aggression abroad
- State funding for political parties: Our system is corrupt, with red, yellow and blue parties currently funded by corporations and criminals
- Ethical MEPs: Of all the British parties, only the Greens score 100% for openness and transparency when questioned about their Euro expenses
We can all make personal decisions to tackle injustice. We can choose not to buy goods from oppressive regimes, we can buy Fairtrade goods with confidence, we can take direct action by letter writing or subscribe to a campaigning organisation. All of these actions make a contribution to change. Our personal choices and our campaigning actions do matter, but the world needs more than just lobbying of the existing politicians and governments.
In June 2009 voters around Britain will have a choice. The Greens are growing in size and political maturity. We are ready for the next steps, which will be to elect more Euro MPs who can crucially act in a balance of power role in the Euro Parliament, followed by the election of the first Green MPs who again seem likely to find themselves in a hung parliament.
The Euro Elections are also likely to determine the future direction of British politics for a generation. Do we really want to see the BNP emerge as Britain's fourth largest political party as UKIP's vote implodes or do we want the Greens electing the final Euro MPs in each region, keeping the BNP in the electoral oblivion their overtly racist membership policy deserves?
It is your choice for 2009. In 1999 our leader Caroline Lucas won her Euro seat in the South East region by less than 300 votes. The contribution made by each and every member and activist in that year was crucial. In 2007 she was named Ethical Politician of the year by the Observer newspaper. 300 votes less would have denied British politics a voice for change.
Will you help us? Are you one of the thousands who support the Greens but have never quite got involved?
We need good people, particularly now. Join us now or contact us. Make that difference in 2009.
Thank you.
Peter
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