Money Can't Buy You Love

I posted a note on Facebook a week ago, which I'll reproduce below in a minute, but I wanted to start by commenting on the latest set of party accounts from the Electoral Commission and some comparative politics.

Lib Dems

2008 National Expenditure £6 million +
Votes at Euro Elections 2,080,613

Spending in Norwich North byelection (estimate) £100,000
Share of vote in Norwich North byelection 14% (down 2.2%)

Greens

2008 National Expenditure £541,000
Votes at Euro Elections 1,303,745

Spending in Norwich North byelection (estimate) £12,000
Share of vote in Norwich North byelection 9.74% (up 7%)

A bar chart showing the number of Lib Dem national members 2001 to 2008



The Lib Dems dropped below 60,000 members last year, from a peak of more than 73,000 in 2003, while Green membership has now increased to over 9,000 after a surge in support during this year from a figure of 5,471 in 2003. To be fair, Lib Dem voice is pointing out that there has been some growth for the Lib Dems this year, but they are not saying by how much.

Despite 7 times as many members as the Greens and 12 times as much funding, at a Proportional Representation election, the Lib Dems got less than twice as many votes. What is clear is that despite a massive funding advantage, the Lib Dems are falling back rather than making progress - money can't buy you love.

But there is one key element where they are outperforming us. 1 in every 35 Lib Dem voters is a member of that party. The figure for the Greens is just 1 member for every 144 voters. We need to double the number of our voters who become members in the coming General Election year. If we could match the Lib Dem rate of membership amongst their voters, we would have 37,000 members. Just imagine what we could achieve.

Note from Facebook:

We need to change British Politics. More and more people are simply not voting, undermining the entire system.

We haven’t sold out. We don’t take corporate cash. We rely on our members and ethically screened donations to support our political work.

Over 1.3 million people voted Green in the European Elections in June.

But only 1 out of every 144 Green voters becomes a member.

Support at the ballot box is vital – it is going to be crucial to help us change British politics.

But we could do so much more if more Green voters become members.

£10. It might not seem like a lot from one person.

But from 1000 people, or 10,000 people it can help us transform Britain.

A Week in Politics

I've been on holiday. To a hire cottage in a very rural bit of Somerset. It was wet. Very wet. I didn't take a laptop and to get mobile phone reception I had to walk up and down a variety of hills. So this is a quick catch up.

The Norwich North byelection result came in with us surprisingly beaten by UKIP - I say surprisingly, because very few people tipped UKIP to do well, and for one of the first times, we actually got more media attention than them. It isn't really a surprise considering the relative amounts spent in the byelection by the Greens (circa £12k) and UKIP (I'll post the election expenses from the byelection once they go public).

A lot was made of the battle between the Greens and the Lib Dems. The latter party spent close to £100,000 and got 14% while we got 9.7% (just short of the level I said would be a good result for us, but still a record byelection performance). The Lib Dem bloggers may have tried to spin this (I'll go and have a look in a minute) but given that this was our weaker Norwich seat, I think they will have to go and have a serious look at the tactics they used.

Meanwhile we've seen "red and green" unity in action in opposition to the closure of the Vestas wind turbine factory on the Isle of Wight, and joint Green / Respect protests at their head office in Warrington. Caroline Lucas is doing what she does best, by coming up with a practical solution to the problem, and asking the local council and the government to deliver on what we were promised - a Green New Deal.

More as I get back up to speed...

Well done Brighton and Hove Greens!

Congratulations to Alex Phillips on her election as our first ever Hove based councillor in Goldsmid ward. The result came through after midnight, but I picked it up on my phone as I tried to settle my son back to sleep (he has had a bit of a cold).

Green 1456 (1010) +446
Tory 1104 (1330) -226
Labour 816 (1231) -415
Lib Dem 280 (720) -440
UKIP 129 (-)

The really, really positive thing about this from a Green perspective was the clear squeeze on both Lib Dem and Labour votes, as people switched to back the Greens as the best option to beat the Conservatives. If we can repeat that in the General Election in next door Brighton Pavilion constituency, we will win our first Westminster seat.

Brighton and Hove council now has a very interesting dynamic. 25 Conservatives, 13 Greens, 13 Labour, 2 Lib Dems and 1 Independent. The Conservatives still clearly are the largest group, but they are going to have to work in a far more co-operative way with the other parties now, unless then can persuade the 2 Lib Dems to go into some formal coalition.

So we are now waiting on Norwich North to report. The Conservatives should win, but no-one is entirely sure how the Labour, Lib Dem and Green vote shares will split. Even UKIP may do well (they are certainly talking up their vote) and Craig Murray should at least hold his deposit. That means 3 or 4 parties polling between 10 and 20%, with 6 out of 12 candidates saving deposits.

Anything into double figures would be real progress for us in my view, but now that the election is over, it is safe to say that Norwich Greens were entirely right to work very hard within the city boundaries of Norwich North. In next year’s council elections, the Greens are likely to become the largest group on the city council, at a very difficult time when central government funding is going to be cut severely.

It will be an incredibly tough job for any administration to handle, but Norwich is increasingly showing it is ready to become the first Green led council in Britain, unless Brighton gets there before them!

By-the-way-election

With Norwich North dominating the headlines politically, it has been easy to overlook the Goldsmid council byelection taking place in Hove tomorrow. Alex Phillips is our excellent candidate and the Brighton Politics Blog reckons this is now a two horse race.

We started this byelection in 3rd place, so to finish in 2nd would be real progress, positioning us to try and gain additional seats in 2011. While the Tories remain favourites, we could conceivably make a gain. That would potentially realign politics in Brighton, as the Tories would lose overall control of the council as a result.

Norwich North has been an interesting byelection campaign and I think Rupert Read deserves an incredible pat on the back for the campaign that has been run there. We have been massively outgunned financially, a situation that is inevitable at Parliamentary byelections, where red, yellow and blue can spend up to £100,000 - a figure that is about one quarter of the national Green Party annual budget.

Again we will have made progress in this byelection. In 2005 we polled 2.7% and lost our deposit. That won't happen again. The lowest forecast I've seen for us 8% and the highest 25%. We are likely to fall somewhere inbetween. It has been a groundbreaking byelection for us, because we have effectively been treated as one of four principle contenders. This has never happened before. Even in the unusual circumstances of the Haltemprice and Holden byelection, where the Greens finished 2nd with 7.4% of the vote, there was no serious coverage of our campaign.

I've already said a lot about the contest between the Greens and Lib Dems in this previous post, and I sincerely hope that the positive campaign run by Norwich Greens does beat Labour and the Lib Dems against all the odds. Some people believe we are capable of 2nd place, many are predicting we will finish 4th, but what is certain is that the gap between 2nd and 4th won't be very large, and that means anything is possible. A win would require a political avalanche in our favour, but perhaps the people of Norwich North might choose to make history - we'll find out on Friday morning.

What is clear is that the culmulative impact of Green exposure in the European Elections and subsequently with the Norwich North byelection is having a real impact. Party office advised me today that our national membership is now above 9000 and continuing to grow. That is a 20% increase compared to this time last year and for a small party like ours, the extra funds and support will make a substantial difference to the kind of campaign we can run at the General Election.

My former colleague on the National Executive, Jim Killock, deserves a little credit for this. He was the prime mover behind getting a Direct Debit system of membership payment set up, despite a whole series of potential problems and the inertia that often holds us back. The increased rate of membership renewals, as well as new growth is starting to pay real financial dividends, and going into the General Election I believe we will have the best ever resourced national campaign.

Political Courage

I agree with George Galloway on some things. I disagree with him on others. But whatever your own political views are, his personal courage in speaking out about the abuse he experienced as a child is immense.

This is from the Daily Record:

"I'm not saying the abuse which happened has ruined my life or anything.

"But it did affect my life, and not in a good way and neither in ways I care to rehearse before you.

"Every time a Soham murderer or a Dunblane Thomas Hamilton emerges, I die a little inside as I remember that dirty old man in Dundee driven by the same perverted interest in sexually attacking kids.

"And the fact that I did not speak up - I told no one of what happened to me.

"All I feel is ashamed, though I was the victim and he the aggressive predator."

"If just one child is spared the horrors of sexual abuse by someone they had a reason to trust, then it would be worth it.

"Trust me. I know."

There are many right-of-sensible people who want to label Galloway and anyone in Respect as an Islamist and anti-Semite. These are smears on an entire political party that was created in hurried circumstances in 2004. It is true that Respect did have problems and that was one of the reasons the Greens steered clear of the coalition in 2004. However, every political party has it own internal strife and its own failings. It is how those are tackled subsequently that count. The members of Respect in the North West I’ve worked with are passionate, humanitarian and committed anti-racist campaigners.

Smears are the lowest form of politics, and are used because the political mainstream believe that “mud sticks”. Galloway’s personal courage is a reminder that whatever character flaws any political party or any politician has, the vast majority of them are in public life to make a positive contribution to political debate.

Greens, Lib Dems and the Next General Election

[This is an electoral hack's kind of post - if you prefer policy or personal stuff, I strongly advise you skip it!]

It is no secret that we are targeting three seats at the next General Election. Brighton Pavilion, Norwich South and Lewisham Deptford. To win one is essential, two would open up all kind of possibilities for the future, and all three would signify a paradigm shift in British politics.

Who has the most to lose from the Greens getting established as a Westminster party? Well it is clear that it would be the Liberal Democrats, and you only have to listen to Nick Clegg's words in this BBC Look East report about the Green campaign in Norwich North to see why. Right now the Lib Dems are able to seem like the best of three bad options for environmentally concerned voters, but if Greens were elected to Westminster, that argument would be fundamentally undermined.

Norwich North is very interesting for us as Greens, because I think it shows exactly how the Lib Dems are going to run against us in constituencies where we are a threat. Caroline Lucas, Adrian Ramsay and Darren Johnson look likely to have to face personalised attacks, smears and negative campaigning from the Lib Dems. The purpose of such campaigns will not be intended to help the Lib Dems win, but are mainly about ensuring that we will not.

Before I continue, I'm going to throw in one caveat at this point. We are at this point assuming that the Lib Dems, who are able to throw far more financial resources at a byelection than us, are successful at keeping the Greens in Norwich from making much progress. The current political climate means no one is exactly sure how this byelection will turn out. Based on some of the comments from Conservatives and Labour, there is a feeling that Lib Dem tactics may backfire. If they were to do so spectacularly, or we spring an incredible result in Norwich North, there might be a rethink from the Lib Dems.

If the Lib Dems finish 3rd, just ahead of us in Norwich North, or 2nd with us in 3rd, they will feel that they have succeeded, and will be emboldened to use the same campaigning tactics at the General Election. It is vital we have a debate now about how to respond or even prevent these "spoiler" tactics.

Firstly, there is the crucial factor of Green voters. We know that even without a Green candidate, two out of three Green supporters will still vote for the least worst alternative. It is likely that in areas where the Lib Dems are fighting the Tories, or the Lib Dems are fighting Labour, the absence of a Green candidate will disproportionately benefit the Lib Dems. So the first response or preparation ahead of the General Election is to select candidates in every marginal Lib Dem constituency and target seat.

Secondly, we know that at any election, there is a "squeeze" factor if you are not seen as one of the two main contenders for a seat. The Lib Dems will work hard to squeeze the Green vote, and recent moves on Trident and touchy feely words on the environment nationally show that in their target seats and those they are defending, the Lib Dems are going to try and be very nice to "green" voters. We won't see any negative attacks on the Greens in these constituencies or in the national media. There will be a lot of gushing about how the Lib Dems are the best party in Westminster on the environment.

Finally, the Lib Dems are actually facing a very hard election. It has shades of 1992 about it, with a seemingly out on its feet government faced with a resurgent opposition, albeit one that doesn't really have the trust of floating voters. Lots can still happen between now and polling day, but there is a serious danger of the Lib Dems themselves being squeezed, as Labour voters turn out again (perhaps for a new leader or out of fear of the Tories) and natural Tories enthusiastically back Cameron rather than tactically back their local Lib Dem challenger. The odds are on the Lib Dems losing rather than gaining seats.

So the debate we need to have is about seats like Guildford. Days after the 2005 General Election I was contacted (I was our national Election Co-ordinator at the time) by a disgruntled Lib Dem complaining that we had cost them the seat. Now apart from the arrogance that demonstrated, and the sense of entitlement to "green" votes the caller obviously felt, he probably had a point. The margin was very tight. If we hadn't stood, the Lib Dems might have held the seat.

Given the tactics used by the Lib Dems in Norwich North, I think there can only be one response, and that is to prepare thoroughly to contest every marginal Lib Dem seat, even those with good incumbents. In all cases we should run a positive campaign, avoiding any personal attacks of the kind typified by the Lib Dems in Norwich North, but also here in Liverpool at a council level. However, crucially and factually, I believe we should point out the Greens as an ethical alternative in contrast to the shortcomings and inconsistencies of the Lib Dems, Labour and the Conservatives on both the environment and expenses.

In order to achieve this, we'll probably need to raise around £25,000 in extra deposits (we have already selected, based on local circumstances, in a number of these seats), and a further £35,000 to £40,000 to ensure that each constituency receives a Green Party freepost leaflet with the kind of messages outlined above. Given the figures I've just seen on membership growth and increased national income, this is now very possible without any reduction in funds to the three target constituencies.

If we have made these preparations, then perhaps the Lib Dem leadership will think seriously about the need to avoid repeating the negative attacks we've seen as a general approach to combating the Greens. Without real consequences for the Liberal Democrats nationally, I do not think that we can expect them to change their approach to us. While negative politics is not always successful, it can have an impact on turnout of possible supporters.

I'd like, if possible, for us to avoid tactics that would lead to less Lib Dem MPs (and therefore reduces the prospects of a "hung" Parliament and real prospects of electoral reform) and the loss of some good Lib Dem parliamentarians. We actually want a Parliament with more diversity, not less, that will include Green MPs. Yes, that may pose a strategic threat to Nick Clegg's party in the long term, but you should not be afraid of political competition, ever.

So if you've read this as a Green and it makes sense, start the debate in your regional party (except London obviously, where a full slate is on the cards already) about where you will be prepared to stand candidates. We should also not be afraid of letting the Lib Dems know what we are thinking on this, and a letter from our party Chair requesting that the Lib Dems refrain from personal attacks on Green candidates might also be in order.

Lessons for the Left

It had to eventually happen. I spoke at my first public meeting since the European Elections last Thursday and attended my first local party meeting last night. In the first meeting I was speaking to an audience largely made up of socialists at Wirral TUC. I was part of a broader platform of speakers, including Steve Radford, Liberal Party councillor, and a speaker from the Labour Representation Committee.

While it was heartening that at least some of the people in the room had voted Green, it was very clear to me that priority for the many members of the Socialist Party, independent socialists and Socialist Workers Party, that their focus was on developing a party to unite the left, or as some define it, the far left.

The Greens are not going to be part of that movement/merger. As I made clear in my opportunity to address the meeting, the discussion had been titled "Political Representation for Working People". I made the point that Steve Radford (who was my local councillor when I first moved to Liverpool) works hard and represents working class people, without any possibility of being defined as a socialist. I also made the case that there can't be a monopoly on working class representation.

I strongly believe that the Greens can represent working class people and if you look at our policies, we actually have a more progressive agenda than either the Lib Dems or Labour. They won't be "socialist" enough for some, but the reality is that we are the Green party, and not a socialist party. I think socialists can be Greens, as can liberals, but the core vision of Green politics is Social Justice and the Environment. We are not tied to a Marxist or Free Market ideology.

What I do think is important to emphasise is that the Greens should not be worried or opposed to a more united socialist movement. One of the major difficulties we have is in relation to sheer number of different socialist parties. Here in the North West, we were able to gain tactical backing from the largest of the socialist parties in 2004, Respect, who supported us to tactically block the BNP. But in 2009 we had both the Socialist Labour Party (last stood in the Euros in 1999) and No2EU (new coalition consisting of Socialist Party, Communist Party, RMT and the old Liberals) both standing. That simply isn't something you can plan for.

If there was a united socialist group, even if simply an umbrella political platform for a loose association of different socialist groups, it would enable the Greens to have a single point of contact in the future. In the event of any electoral arrangement (such as a tactical decision to try and defeat the BNP), negotiations or discussions would take place far more easily. So any Green interested in politics on the left, should be supportive of moves towards "socialist unity".

It should be possible for us to look beyond party politics at times. I'll personally be putting my support behind Kay Phillips, who is standing for Respect in Manchester Blackley at the next General Election. Kay is a doctor and humanitarian campaigner, passionate about the causes she supports. We won't be standing a candidate in Blackley and I'd recommend a vote for Respect as the best application of a boot to the rear of the Labour Party in what is a safe seat for them.

But my final point is that we should be prepared to look beyond party boundaries when it is clear that the candidate is a fellow political traveller, albeit someone who has made a principled choice about which party to stand for. I've said it once, I'll say it again, and I will keep saying it. The Greens should not be standing against Salma Yaqoob in Birmingham Hall Green at the next General Election. We have one of the most talented female politicians of our era currently representing tens of thousands of people as a local councillor. Her abilities and her record deserve to be at a higher level, and she would make a very good MP.

I don't think there is anything to be scared of in the election of a more diverse House of Commons, and the prospects for co-operation should be better left of centre rather than on the right of centre. In a seat where the Greens have no chance of winning not just in this election, but potentially for two or three elections to come, then why not make the best tactical choice?

My next post will go into this in a bit more detail in regards to my thoughts about the General Election, and particularly our response to the Lib Dem campaign in Norwich North. You can read my article on this at Socialist Unity.

Iain Dale's Moativation

A fantastic scoop by leading Tory blogger Iain Dale, with the news that Liberal Democrat candidate April Pond has a moat. He also attacks the Lib Dems for their continued smearing of Rupert Read, our very hard working local candidate.

The Lib Dems have gone into full response mode online, but I fear they miss the point that the Mr Dale also has a regular (Saturday) column in one of the local papers as a former Norwich North PPC. It would be a surprise if this wasn't his main story.

So why is Iain Dale putting this story out there? The Lib Dems are right to say that this is nothing like the case of the Tory MP who claimed expenses money to have his moat cleaned. But it does have everything to do with the fact that in order for the Lib Dems to move from 3rd place to 2nd in Norwich North and avoid the Greens overtaking them, they need to attract more ex-Labour voters than the Greens.

If there is one thing that won't play well with voters who usually support Labour, it is the idea that their future MP is someone who has a moat in their garden. This is where the moativation comes from for Dale's clever scoop.

The problem for the Lib Dems is that they are not exactly telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Their candidate lives on the border with Suffolk but they are playing the "local candidate" card.

If you smear and use cheap politics, as the Lib Dems have been doing in Norwich North, there is little sympathy when suddenly the tables are turned. This is not going to do Ms Pond's prospects any good at all.

I'd be surprised if the Greens or the Tories make this an issue, but with Labour likely to put out a couple of leaflets before the end of the campaign, you can be sure that the message will be getting out to voters.

BNP Supporter Pleads Guilty

Full details in today's Liverpool Echo.

There can be no doubt that the BNP are nasty, racist and homophobic organisation. A women's co-operative bookshop in Liverpool was the target on this occasion, but they've previously targeted a trade unionist and you'll find pictures of many Merseyside activists on the R*dwatch site. When people ask why we had a "no platform" policy with the BNP in the Euro Elections - this is why.

Climate Change Concerns

Mumbai is facing acute water shortages. A city of 20 million people in a hot climate, with real concerns over levels of water in nearby lakes.

Where else in the world are water shortages already being acutely felt?

The Australian reports concerns about a double whammy from El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole on the Eastern side of the country. The concerns about Perth are well documented.

Uganda faces drought in its North East.

According to Chinese State Media, Tibet is facing its worst drought crisis in 30 years.

And how does this feed through to Britain’s news? Well, the Daily Mail really cuts to the heart of the problem with its report into the resultant increase in tea prices…

Imagine a single day without clean water. It is very difficult. We take it for granted and protestations over hose pipe bans are about as concerned as we get.

Water security, with resultant war and conflict over scarce water supplies will be the source of the greatest conflicts of this century. Climate Change as a process, not just concerns over the end result, should be shaping our view of our personal and political actions right here and right now.

If anyone knows of other drought areas around the globe, could you post links up. This is going to be the first in a series of posts over the next few months.

Lib Dems Fail GCSE Maths (Again)

Question 1

Take these detailed local election results for the County Council elections across all the divisions in Norwich North:

[Correction - I've just had full details sent to me - actually the figures are far better for us]

Con 12531 39.0%
Green 6030 18.8%
Lib Dem 5702 17.7%
Labour 5561 17.3%
UKIP 2106 6.5%

Create an accurate bar chart, drawn to scale, that educates the reader about the results in that election.

[5 marks awarded for correctly copying the figures]
[5 marks awarded for drawing the chart to scale]

Answer 1 from the Lib Dems

Marks for the Lib Dems

[0 for copying the figures - mysteriously they seem to have chosen national statistics...]
[0 for drawing the chart to scale - the Tories got this half of the question right]