As Greens, we naturally view the Conservatives with distrust, dislike of their policies and ourselves in opposition to them. Cameron is a Prime Minister who is deeply disliked by the many, many people already feeling the impact of cuts. This post in no way attempts to apologise for that, but there is some political significance in the way that even today's Conservative party has moved to a much more enlightened position on some very basic issues.
Twenty years ago, it would have been impossible for Nigel Evans to come out as gay in the Conservative Party. Twenty years ago it would pretty impossible to see a young Asian woman like Priti Patel tipped as a future Tory high flier. Twenty years ago, I wouldn't have predicted that the Conservatives would accept the existence of manmade Climate Change.
There is still homophobia in the Conservatives. There is still racism. There is also still a culture of dismissal about Climate Change amongst many Tories, and there is certainly a lack of action from this government, just like the last one. That said, when even parties we oppose are making social progress, we should acknowledge it as such. That doesn't diminish the horrendous impact of Conservative led policies on the lives of ordinary folk in Britain, which is a far bigger issue for us to deal with.
19 December 2010
14 December 2010
Drake and Some Universal Truths
I've just watched an excellent BBC4 programme, "The Search for Life: The Drake Equation". The maths suggests we are not alone in the universe and the tough question we should ask is, "why hasn't anyone else made contact?"
The Drake Equation is hard science:
The Drake equation states calculates N as the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible
and it is based on a calculation that multiplies the following:
R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets potentially supporting life per star with planets
fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
The last one is the most interesting from a Green perspective. Civilisation, in its loosest possible sense, has been around for about 6,000 years if you go from our history or 12,000 if you go from the origins of agriculture. Shortly after inventing radio signals, we invented very destructive weapons, stockpiled them around the world, knowing that if they were ever used it would be the end of our civilisation and probably our species. We've not dealt entirely with that problem, but history has worked out well in that we are still here. It could have been different, but in that alternate reality nobody ever got the chance to blog.
We have also dealt with a specific measurable problem, that was having a significant impact on health and human beings. It is still going to take many decades or even a couple of centuries, for Ozone in the upper atmosphere to recover, but it looks likely to do so.
But we are not doing very well with our current problem, which is going to be Earth +2.0 degrees. Cancun is weak. Kyoto didn't deliver and we have a flat earther problem with social "free riders" who don't care about wider consequences, as long as they can remain comfortable with their ultra-libertarian and self-centred view of the world and our species.
Given that we've so far failed to grasp the problem, it might be interesting to speculate on just how far our period of civilisation will go on for. In 1961 Drake suggested that an average period for a species to be able to broadcast such signals would be 10,000 years. Is that really going to be realistic given our current challenges?
The optimist in me likes to think we'll manage to sort it out. I certainly hope so for the sake of my sons and for their children as well.
The Drake Equation is hard science:
The Drake equation states calculates N as the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible
and it is based on a calculation that multiplies the following:
R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets potentially supporting life per star with planets
fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
The last one is the most interesting from a Green perspective. Civilisation, in its loosest possible sense, has been around for about 6,000 years if you go from our history or 12,000 if you go from the origins of agriculture. Shortly after inventing radio signals, we invented very destructive weapons, stockpiled them around the world, knowing that if they were ever used it would be the end of our civilisation and probably our species. We've not dealt entirely with that problem, but history has worked out well in that we are still here. It could have been different, but in that alternate reality nobody ever got the chance to blog.
We have also dealt with a specific measurable problem, that was having a significant impact on health and human beings. It is still going to take many decades or even a couple of centuries, for Ozone in the upper atmosphere to recover, but it looks likely to do so.
But we are not doing very well with our current problem, which is going to be Earth +2.0 degrees. Cancun is weak. Kyoto didn't deliver and we have a flat earther problem with social "free riders" who don't care about wider consequences, as long as they can remain comfortable with their ultra-libertarian and self-centred view of the world and our species.
Given that we've so far failed to grasp the problem, it might be interesting to speculate on just how far our period of civilisation will go on for. In 1961 Drake suggested that an average period for a species to be able to broadcast such signals would be 10,000 years. Is that really going to be realistic given our current challenges?
The optimist in me likes to think we'll manage to sort it out. I certainly hope so for the sake of my sons and for their children as well.
11 December 2010
Political Fall out for the Lib Dems
Yesterday there was another by-election to follow on from the ones in other northern cities. This time in Warrington, where a Lib Dem / Conservative council is in power and in a ward where the Lib Dems have councillors. Last night's result was as follows:
Labour 1032 (71%, +18%)
Lib Dem 221 (15%, -17%)
Cons. 112 (8%, -7%)
Green 47 (3%, +3%)
Ind 33 (2%, +2%)
The mood is going to be very sombre for Lib Dem councillors up for re-election in the north of England next May. In wards where the Lib Dems have previously been able to get social liberals, Greens and disaffected Labour voters to back them, they are now being deserted. Yes, turnout is lower in byelections, but the pattern is absolutely clear. Despite putting out "neck and neck" leaflets, and running a full campaign, the Lib Dems are suffering one bad byelection defeat after another.
Labour must be rubbing their hands in glee. Having spent 13 years in government, they are now rebounding at a local level, particularly where the Lib Dems have become their main opposition. The core level of national Lib Dem support is probably around 8 to 10%. Even with a full byelection campaign, as in Warrington, Manchester (Hulme) and Liverpool (Croxteth), they are getting hammered. However, Lib Dems councillors don't have to continue to line up to go over the top in May.
Yesterday we saw a few Lib Dem defections. There was this piece on Lib Dem Voice, a Haringey councillor go independent, the Daily Record carries this report and James Ogley, who says he will be joining the Greens.
A few Lib Dems will be carefully considering their position this weekend. While this isn't an Iraq War level of significance for those that remain in the Lib Dems, trust in them and the promises of their leader are in tatters.
Labour 1032 (71%, +18%)
Lib Dem 221 (15%, -17%)
Cons. 112 (8%, -7%)
Green 47 (3%, +3%)
Ind 33 (2%, +2%)
The mood is going to be very sombre for Lib Dem councillors up for re-election in the north of England next May. In wards where the Lib Dems have previously been able to get social liberals, Greens and disaffected Labour voters to back them, they are now being deserted. Yes, turnout is lower in byelections, but the pattern is absolutely clear. Despite putting out "neck and neck" leaflets, and running a full campaign, the Lib Dems are suffering one bad byelection defeat after another.
Labour must be rubbing their hands in glee. Having spent 13 years in government, they are now rebounding at a local level, particularly where the Lib Dems have become their main opposition. The core level of national Lib Dem support is probably around 8 to 10%. Even with a full byelection campaign, as in Warrington, Manchester (Hulme) and Liverpool (Croxteth), they are getting hammered. However, Lib Dems councillors don't have to continue to line up to go over the top in May.
Yesterday we saw a few Lib Dem defections. There was this piece on Lib Dem Voice, a Haringey councillor go independent, the Daily Record carries this report and James Ogley, who says he will be joining the Greens.
A few Lib Dems will be carefully considering their position this weekend. While this isn't an Iraq War level of significance for those that remain in the Lib Dems, trust in them and the promises of their leader are in tatters.
9 December 2010
Who Voted "Yes" to Tuition Fees
The following Lib Dems, 28 out of 57, voted in favour of the trebling of tuition fees:
* Danny Alexander
* Norman Baker
* Sir Alan Beith
* Gordon Birtwistle
* Tom Brake
* Jeremy Browne
* Malcolm Bruce
* Paul Burstow
* Vincent Cable
* Alistair Carmichael
* Nick Clegg
* Edward Davey
* Lynne Featherstone
* Don Foster
* Stephen Gilbert
* Duncan Hames
* Nick Harvey
* David Heath
* John Hemming
* Norman Lamb
* David Laws
* Michael Moore
* Andrew Stunell
* Jo Swinson
* Sarah Teather
* David Ward
* Steve Webb
A further 8 Lib Dems abstained. Of these, 2 were in Cancun, where Huhne's Yes vote would have been cancelled out by a no vote by Martin Horwood. Sadly there has been some abusively hysterical stuff from the Lib Dem blogosphere, demanding that Caroline Lucas should have "paired" with Chris Huhne and not voted on this, particularly from a self titled "senior Lib Dem policy maker"... very sad indeed! Obviously such a "senior" fellow should at least know who is pairing with who in his own party.
Credit to the 21 Lib Dems who did show some backbone including John Pugh in Southport, and voted against their own government, and to the two that resigned from the government to do so. The full breakdown, including the Tories who also rebelled is here on the BBC.
* Danny Alexander
* Norman Baker
* Sir Alan Beith
* Gordon Birtwistle
* Tom Brake
* Jeremy Browne
* Malcolm Bruce
* Paul Burstow
* Vincent Cable
* Alistair Carmichael
* Nick Clegg
* Edward Davey
* Lynne Featherstone
* Don Foster
* Stephen Gilbert
* Duncan Hames
* Nick Harvey
* David Heath
* John Hemming
* Norman Lamb
* David Laws
* Michael Moore
* Andrew Stunell
* Jo Swinson
* Sarah Teather
* David Ward
* Steve Webb
A further 8 Lib Dems abstained. Of these, 2 were in Cancun, where Huhne's Yes vote would have been cancelled out by a no vote by Martin Horwood. Sadly there has been some abusively hysterical stuff from the Lib Dem blogosphere, demanding that Caroline Lucas should have "paired" with Chris Huhne and not voted on this, particularly from a self titled "senior Lib Dem policy maker"... very sad indeed! Obviously such a "senior" fellow should at least know who is pairing with who in his own party.
Credit to the 21 Lib Dems who did show some backbone including John Pugh in Southport, and voted against their own government, and to the two that resigned from the government to do so. The full breakdown, including the Tories who also rebelled is here on the BBC.
7 December 2010
A Letter from a Local Lib Dem
In case you missed this, Paul Clein, a Lib Dem councillor in Liverpool, had this letter published in the Guardian last week:
"I voted for Nick Clegg as Lib Dem leader. I don't doubt him, or Vince Cable, when they say the deal on tuition fees is fairer than would have been the case post-Browne under either a majority Tory or Labour government (Leaders, 1 December). But Clegg leads a party which is against tuition fees as a matter of principle, believes higher education should be funded from general taxation and that we already have a progressive graduate tax – income tax. Given that, it is irrelevant where tuition fee boundaries are set. Experience from Australia and the US shows that young people from poorer families will nearly all go to less prestigious (ie cheaper) universities with fee structures of this nature. Unfortunately, we are a party of mainly social liberals led by a coterie of mainly economic liberals. This is a litmus issue for many members. I am not alone in considering my membership after 21 years, 19 of them as a councillor. Nick, this is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Paul Clein"
We have had some quite vigorous campaigns against the Lib Dems in Greenbank, so I don't currently consider he would contemplate us as an option. However as I wrote here, Liberal Democrat councillors who can't stomach the coalition are faced with some very hard choices.
I think Paul Clein is a serious politician who is clearly having to think hard about staying to fight his corner in the Lib Dems, or potentially becoming an Independent. He is also up for re-election this coming May, so this will be a very interesting case to watch.
Greenbank has a substantial student population, and Labour (who came reasonably close to taking the seat last year on the back of a big General Election turnout) will be pushing hard, although with the election more likely to focus on local issues, it will be much harder for them. We also have a new candidate (more on him soon) who will be very competitive this year and will work to hold and increase our vote of 800 last year. In a normal local election year, about 1200 votes would be likely to put you into contention to win.
If Cllr Clein goes Independent before the election, I think he should be applauded for his political courage (if I was still living in the ward and it was an AV election, he would get my second preference vote). Given the results in northern city wards like Hulme, Croxteth and Worth Valley recently, those that remain as Lib Dem candidates in May are likely to be punished for the national decisions of their party, whatever is known about their merits as a long standing ward councillor.
"I voted for Nick Clegg as Lib Dem leader. I don't doubt him, or Vince Cable, when they say the deal on tuition fees is fairer than would have been the case post-Browne under either a majority Tory or Labour government (Leaders, 1 December). But Clegg leads a party which is against tuition fees as a matter of principle, believes higher education should be funded from general taxation and that we already have a progressive graduate tax – income tax. Given that, it is irrelevant where tuition fee boundaries are set. Experience from Australia and the US shows that young people from poorer families will nearly all go to less prestigious (ie cheaper) universities with fee structures of this nature. Unfortunately, we are a party of mainly social liberals led by a coterie of mainly economic liberals. This is a litmus issue for many members. I am not alone in considering my membership after 21 years, 19 of them as a councillor. Nick, this is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Paul Clein"
We have had some quite vigorous campaigns against the Lib Dems in Greenbank, so I don't currently consider he would contemplate us as an option. However as I wrote here, Liberal Democrat councillors who can't stomach the coalition are faced with some very hard choices.
I think Paul Clein is a serious politician who is clearly having to think hard about staying to fight his corner in the Lib Dems, or potentially becoming an Independent. He is also up for re-election this coming May, so this will be a very interesting case to watch.
Greenbank has a substantial student population, and Labour (who came reasonably close to taking the seat last year on the back of a big General Election turnout) will be pushing hard, although with the election more likely to focus on local issues, it will be much harder for them. We also have a new candidate (more on him soon) who will be very competitive this year and will work to hold and increase our vote of 800 last year. In a normal local election year, about 1200 votes would be likely to put you into contention to win.
If Cllr Clein goes Independent before the election, I think he should be applauded for his political courage (if I was still living in the ward and it was an AV election, he would get my second preference vote). Given the results in northern city wards like Hulme, Croxteth and Worth Valley recently, those that remain as Lib Dem candidates in May are likely to be punished for the national decisions of their party, whatever is known about their merits as a long standing ward councillor.
Freedom
It is difficult to comprehend what freedom really means. Like other things we value in life, we often don't appreciate something unless we know what it is like to endure its absence.
Yesterday I had a long discussion with one of my students. He was a non-Muslim from Iran, who had a good job working in the water industry there. He had a nice house and car, but no freedom. He left in 2004 to seek a better life here.
He arrived and went by the book, explaining his need for asylum. He was given leave to remain, but with the condition that he supported himself and did not rely on the state to provide for him. He worked 7 days a week for the next few years, in fast food outlets. An educated, intelligent man, working 7 days a week, without a break for years. In his words, he thought he would have a better economic life here, but that hasn't been the case. Only now is he financially able to take time out to study and gain qualifications here.
In class yesterday, when I asked what would make him happy, he said "freedom for my country". He is proud of his Persian heritage, from Cyrus to the traditions of modern Iran, but he is pained by the severity of human rights abuses in his country. He is angry and sickened by the stories he hears of torture and rape of political opponents of the current regime.
We had a discussion about the Green revolution and what might of been. In the short term, he is not optimistic, but longer term he feels change will come, and that it will be irresistable. I hope so too.
Yesterday I had a long discussion with one of my students. He was a non-Muslim from Iran, who had a good job working in the water industry there. He had a nice house and car, but no freedom. He left in 2004 to seek a better life here.
He arrived and went by the book, explaining his need for asylum. He was given leave to remain, but with the condition that he supported himself and did not rely on the state to provide for him. He worked 7 days a week for the next few years, in fast food outlets. An educated, intelligent man, working 7 days a week, without a break for years. In his words, he thought he would have a better economic life here, but that hasn't been the case. Only now is he financially able to take time out to study and gain qualifications here.
In class yesterday, when I asked what would make him happy, he said "freedom for my country". He is proud of his Persian heritage, from Cyrus to the traditions of modern Iran, but he is pained by the severity of human rights abuses in his country. He is angry and sickened by the stories he hears of torture and rape of political opponents of the current regime.
We had a discussion about the Green revolution and what might of been. In the short term, he is not optimistic, but longer term he feels change will come, and that it will be irresistable. I hope so too.
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