After scandal and the resignation of their group leader, comes another defection from the Lib Dems to Labour. Although Cllr Millar was not facing re-election this year, his seat would almost certainly have fallen to Labour in 2012. You can read into that what you will.
If the Lib Dems think this is going to be the last of their bad headlines before polling day, they need to think again. There is more bad news to come.
25 April 2011
24 April 2011
Election and Referendum Outlook for the Greens
There are just ten days left until polling day and I wanted to put down a few thoughts about the forthcoming elections.
Last year we felt a "Local Vote Green" message would offset the one off increase in turnout here in Liverpool. The tactic worked - Tom Crone, our excellent Riverside Parliamentary candidate, gained 1355 (3.5%) of the General Election votes cast across 6 wards - but gained 1790 in St Michaels alone for the local elections. Unfortunately, Cleggmania from the TV debates kicked in just as Postal Votes went out last year. That is what cost us a narrow victory in St Michaels, and wasn't anything we could have anticipated or counteracted through our local campaigning. The result boosted the Lib Dems at our expense in our two target wards.
A year on, Clegg's unpopularity is such that I've not seen a single local Lib Dem leaflet with him on it. Living in Church ward, I also note that Richard Kemp's two communication leaflets to postal voters only contained the words "Liberal Democrats" in the imprint, and nowhere else on the form. Even allowing for national unpopularity, seats such as Church ward should really still be safe, but the Warren Bradley resignation, just before Postal Votes went out is now likely to give Liverpool Labour a chance to take seats like Church they would not realistically have otherwise. Elections are about events, and this year national unpopularity and the former local leader self destructing will drive the Liverpool Lib Dem vote lower than it would be otherwise.
In all this, we are focused on retaining our St Michaels seat, with Cllr John Coyne running a strong re-election campaign. Every vote will be fought for, but I would expect John to hold his seat, a view shared by pundits from other parties, on the Vote 2007 website. We will also be looking to build our level of support in Greenbank, where Lawrence Brown has been working hard as a our candidate. I expect the Lib Dem share of the vote to drop in both wards, and Greenbank is a very interesting one to watch as it has a very large student population, who may be more likely to vote this year because of the Referendum on AV.
Late last year, Paul Clein wrote to the Guardian pondering his future as a Liberal Democrat. Since then he has made the decision to stick with it and we'll see if that was the right call. Had he gone Independent before this election, I think he would have had a stronger chance of re-election by combining an effective student campaign combined with his long standing history in the ward. As it is, I think Greenbank is too close to call this year.
Moving further afield, we are contesting over 1600 local election seats in England this year, and I'd expect a number of Green gains, particularly in Brighton. In Wales, we have the Assembly elections, and in South Wales Central some positive polling and a clear electoral strategy give us our best chance yet of gaining our first Green AM in Wales.
In Scotland, we could be making some serious headlines on May 6th. In today's opinion poll for Scotland on Sunday, the Greens are at 7%, equal with the Lib Dems. The Scotland Votes seat prediction suggests that could mean as many as 8 Green seats in Holyrood. Even a doubling of our seats from 2 to 4 would be a big step forward.
This should be a good set of elections for the Greens but there is also the small matter of the AV referendum. This is a choice between a deeply unfair and disproportionate system where you can vote once, and a deeply unfair and disproportionate system where you can express your preferences. The latter is preferable in my opinion, and I will be voting in favour of the change. I think the outlook for an increase on our single MP in the next parliament will be increased by the switch to AV, but my reason for voting in favour will be to keep pushing the door for genuine reform.
AV will show that increasingly people want to cast their vote for parties other than Labour and the Conservatives. In the face of this evidence, further electoral reform will follow. Under FPTP, preferences will remain masked by tactical voting considerations and instead of further reform, the failure of this referendum will be used by Labour and Conservative politicians alike to keep reform off the agenda for another generation. I believe it will be a very close vote and that it will be narrowly won by those arguing in favour of reform, but we shall see.
Last year we felt a "Local Vote Green" message would offset the one off increase in turnout here in Liverpool. The tactic worked - Tom Crone, our excellent Riverside Parliamentary candidate, gained 1355 (3.5%) of the General Election votes cast across 6 wards - but gained 1790 in St Michaels alone for the local elections. Unfortunately, Cleggmania from the TV debates kicked in just as Postal Votes went out last year. That is what cost us a narrow victory in St Michaels, and wasn't anything we could have anticipated or counteracted through our local campaigning. The result boosted the Lib Dems at our expense in our two target wards.
A year on, Clegg's unpopularity is such that I've not seen a single local Lib Dem leaflet with him on it. Living in Church ward, I also note that Richard Kemp's two communication leaflets to postal voters only contained the words "Liberal Democrats" in the imprint, and nowhere else on the form. Even allowing for national unpopularity, seats such as Church ward should really still be safe, but the Warren Bradley resignation, just before Postal Votes went out is now likely to give Liverpool Labour a chance to take seats like Church they would not realistically have otherwise. Elections are about events, and this year national unpopularity and the former local leader self destructing will drive the Liverpool Lib Dem vote lower than it would be otherwise.
In all this, we are focused on retaining our St Michaels seat, with Cllr John Coyne running a strong re-election campaign. Every vote will be fought for, but I would expect John to hold his seat, a view shared by pundits from other parties, on the Vote 2007 website. We will also be looking to build our level of support in Greenbank, where Lawrence Brown has been working hard as a our candidate. I expect the Lib Dem share of the vote to drop in both wards, and Greenbank is a very interesting one to watch as it has a very large student population, who may be more likely to vote this year because of the Referendum on AV.
Late last year, Paul Clein wrote to the Guardian pondering his future as a Liberal Democrat. Since then he has made the decision to stick with it and we'll see if that was the right call. Had he gone Independent before this election, I think he would have had a stronger chance of re-election by combining an effective student campaign combined with his long standing history in the ward. As it is, I think Greenbank is too close to call this year.
Moving further afield, we are contesting over 1600 local election seats in England this year, and I'd expect a number of Green gains, particularly in Brighton. In Wales, we have the Assembly elections, and in South Wales Central some positive polling and a clear electoral strategy give us our best chance yet of gaining our first Green AM in Wales.
In Scotland, we could be making some serious headlines on May 6th. In today's opinion poll for Scotland on Sunday, the Greens are at 7%, equal with the Lib Dems. The Scotland Votes seat prediction suggests that could mean as many as 8 Green seats in Holyrood. Even a doubling of our seats from 2 to 4 would be a big step forward.
This should be a good set of elections for the Greens but there is also the small matter of the AV referendum. This is a choice between a deeply unfair and disproportionate system where you can vote once, and a deeply unfair and disproportionate system where you can express your preferences. The latter is preferable in my opinion, and I will be voting in favour of the change. I think the outlook for an increase on our single MP in the next parliament will be increased by the switch to AV, but my reason for voting in favour will be to keep pushing the door for genuine reform.
AV will show that increasingly people want to cast their vote for parties other than Labour and the Conservatives. In the face of this evidence, further electoral reform will follow. Under FPTP, preferences will remain masked by tactical voting considerations and instead of further reform, the failure of this referendum will be used by Labour and Conservative politicians alike to keep reform off the agenda for another generation. I believe it will be a very close vote and that it will be narrowly won by those arguing in favour of reform, but we shall see.
18 April 2011
Warren Bradley Resigns
Update: According to David Bartlett on Twitter, Bradley has been suspended by the Liberal Democrats pending an investigation
In a fast moving news story, Warren Bradley went from scandal story to resignation in a few hours today. The original story, about him allegedly fraudulently signing his own son's nomination papers as a witness, with his son claiming that his (the candidate signature) was faked, left him in an untenable position. A few hours later, his resignation email was sent, where he does not admit any wrong doing and will be taking some legal advice.
One of the comments on David Bartlett's blog illuminates what is often unsaid about the former council leader's "private life":
"The background to this is a personal disaster for Bradley on many levels. As I understand matters, the 'senior Lib Dems' whom he claims have undermined him include his original mentor, Lord Mike Storey. Richard Kemp is a long-time adversary and can be ignored. It's Storey's involvement that has changed the game. Storey remains close to the Bradley family, and is sympathetic to the wife faced with Bradley's desertion a year back. Neither Storey, the wife, nor his parents, nor apparently his son Daniel, have forgiven him for walking out for the hate-monger, Sharon Green. Beneath the politics lies a nest of unrelenting domestic bitterness. Quite why the Lib Dems re-elected Bradley last year is beyond rational explanation. If they now choose Richard Kemp, that will be too."
I agree with Bradley that private lives should remain private, but there are limits to what should be considered private. Sharon Green, referred to as "the hate-monger" in the comment (not language I would choose), was exposed as having an offensively mocking image of disabled youngsters tagged as "the Labour opposition". At the time, Bradley mustered a defence that didn't stand up to scrutiny and said "he considered the matter closed". He also strangely said:
"As I'm not a member of Facebook, I have not seen the alleged picture, nor would I know how to access it."
Given that the picture was posted in January 2010, which was before Sharon Green was even a Lib Dem candidate or had any history of political activism in Liverpool that I or other Greens were aware of, it was unlikely for her as an outsider to have the depth of knowledge of the personalities involved to have tagged the picture in the way it was done. Given the defence put forward by Cllr Green, it would point the finger at someone with knowledge and ill feeling towards the Labour group.
Just ten days before the Facebook scandal broke, Bradley had survived a leadership challenge by a very narrow three votes. Had the leadership contest taken place after the Facebook scandal, and with all members of the Liberal Democrat group aware of Bradley's personal relationship with Cllr Green and his initial response, I believe he would have been defeated by any credible alternative candidate.
By February of this year, an internal Lib Dem and council investigation both reported back on the Facebook scandal. No further action was taken, but the lack of any message or contact with Facebook to complain that the account had been hacked undermined the explanations that had been given. I believe the question the press should have asked to Warren Bradley during these investigations is whether he posted the picture or had access to Cllr Green's Facebook account, and a response would then have been on record. The reason it should have been asked is that by then it was common knowledge that Cllr Bradley and Cllr Green were in a relationship.
So while I have sympathy with Warren Bradley over what is now likely to be a very painful time personally, as he has to find some way forward with his 18 year old son, simply declaring something as "private life" doesn't put it off limits if that influences your judgement, or potentially raises questions about your conduct as the leader of a political group. His career is now over but I hope that he and his family find some form of personal peace in the future.
In a fast moving news story, Warren Bradley went from scandal story to resignation in a few hours today. The original story, about him allegedly fraudulently signing his own son's nomination papers as a witness, with his son claiming that his (the candidate signature) was faked, left him in an untenable position. A few hours later, his resignation email was sent, where he does not admit any wrong doing and will be taking some legal advice.
One of the comments on David Bartlett's blog illuminates what is often unsaid about the former council leader's "private life":
"The background to this is a personal disaster for Bradley on many levels. As I understand matters, the 'senior Lib Dems' whom he claims have undermined him include his original mentor, Lord Mike Storey. Richard Kemp is a long-time adversary and can be ignored. It's Storey's involvement that has changed the game. Storey remains close to the Bradley family, and is sympathetic to the wife faced with Bradley's desertion a year back. Neither Storey, the wife, nor his parents, nor apparently his son Daniel, have forgiven him for walking out for the hate-monger, Sharon Green. Beneath the politics lies a nest of unrelenting domestic bitterness. Quite why the Lib Dems re-elected Bradley last year is beyond rational explanation. If they now choose Richard Kemp, that will be too."
I agree with Bradley that private lives should remain private, but there are limits to what should be considered private. Sharon Green, referred to as "the hate-monger" in the comment (not language I would choose), was exposed as having an offensively mocking image of disabled youngsters tagged as "the Labour opposition". At the time, Bradley mustered a defence that didn't stand up to scrutiny and said "he considered the matter closed". He also strangely said:
"As I'm not a member of Facebook, I have not seen the alleged picture, nor would I know how to access it."
Given that the picture was posted in January 2010, which was before Sharon Green was even a Lib Dem candidate or had any history of political activism in Liverpool that I or other Greens were aware of, it was unlikely for her as an outsider to have the depth of knowledge of the personalities involved to have tagged the picture in the way it was done. Given the defence put forward by Cllr Green, it would point the finger at someone with knowledge and ill feeling towards the Labour group.
Just ten days before the Facebook scandal broke, Bradley had survived a leadership challenge by a very narrow three votes. Had the leadership contest taken place after the Facebook scandal, and with all members of the Liberal Democrat group aware of Bradley's personal relationship with Cllr Green and his initial response, I believe he would have been defeated by any credible alternative candidate.
By February of this year, an internal Lib Dem and council investigation both reported back on the Facebook scandal. No further action was taken, but the lack of any message or contact with Facebook to complain that the account had been hacked undermined the explanations that had been given. I believe the question the press should have asked to Warren Bradley during these investigations is whether he posted the picture or had access to Cllr Green's Facebook account, and a response would then have been on record. The reason it should have been asked is that by then it was common knowledge that Cllr Bradley and Cllr Green were in a relationship.
So while I have sympathy with Warren Bradley over what is now likely to be a very painful time personally, as he has to find some way forward with his 18 year old son, simply declaring something as "private life" doesn't put it off limits if that influences your judgement, or potentially raises questions about your conduct as the leader of a political group. His career is now over but I hope that he and his family find some form of personal peace in the future.
Time Off For Paternity
Our second son Hughie was born on the 8th April at a healthy weight of 7lb 12oz. We are both delighted and so far so good with our oldest boy, who seems to be genuinely enjoying the extra overall attention from all our visitors.
I'm off on paternity leave until 3rd May. I might manage a bit of politics in my spare time, but I'm largely focusing on family time for now, as a happy dad.
I'm off on paternity leave until 3rd May. I might manage a bit of politics in my spare time, but I'm largely focusing on family time for now, as a happy dad.
4 April 2011
2011 Local Election Candidates In Liverpool
As a very much non-target candidate in Riverside this year, I'll be doing what I can to help John Coyne get re-elected in St Michaels.
With all the candidates now listed for the 2011 local elections, it looks like a full slate for the Greens, Conservatives, Labour and even Steve Radford's Liberals. However the Lib Dems seem to have failed to come up with a candidate in Everton, Kirkdale and Norris Green. In previous years, missing Lib Dem candidates have usually been as a result of a tactical arrangment with Steve Radford's party, but this year it simply looks like no one was willing to sign for them to be a candidate!
With all the candidates now listed for the 2011 local elections, it looks like a full slate for the Greens, Conservatives, Labour and even Steve Radford's Liberals. However the Lib Dems seem to have failed to come up with a candidate in Everton, Kirkdale and Norris Green. In previous years, missing Lib Dem candidates have usually been as a result of a tactical arrangment with Steve Radford's party, but this year it simply looks like no one was willing to sign for them to be a candidate!
2 April 2011
In Praise of Liverpool's First Elected Green Councillor, John Coyne
In 2006 John Coyne left the Liberal Democrats on a point of principle. He objected to the demolition of the Welsh Streets by the Lib Dem council as part of a national Labour Pathfinder initiative. John became an independent but talked to us after doing so. Just before the 2006 local election after a democratic vote by members of the local Green Party at a specially convened meeting, John announced he would become a Green councillor for the last year of his term. In the 2006 local election, we took 2nd place in St Michaels by a margin of just 5 votes, but that proved crucial.
We put a tremendous amount of collective work into St Michaels ward over that year, knowing that John was an underdog candidate fighting for re-election against a Lib Dem dominated council who were very keen to get rid of him. After some shenanigans during the election campaign and some outstanding work from our team, in particular "The Inconvenient Truth" rapid response leaflet we put out when the Lib Dems were working hard to pretend it was a contest between just them and Labour certainly helped, but it was John's personal profile, his history as a ward councillor in Dingle since 2002 and St Michaels since 2004 that swung things our way. John was re-elected with a comfortable majority.
Since 2007 John has been the leading source of ideas and inspiration for Green politics in Liverpool, handing over the responsibility of group leader to our other excellent Green councillor in St Michaels, Sarah Jennings (elected 2008). He's led from the front, taken tough decisions when required and shaken up a sometimes sterile Liverpool political scene.
If you want to read about everything that has been done in that time, the Liverpool Green Party website has an excellent news archive, with press release and news report, following press release and news report of the good work that both John and Sarah have done in the area.
In every one of the four local elections in St Michaels since 2006, the Labour Party has finished in third place. Even last year, with the huge boost of a General Election turnout, Labour were still only third, but after winning back the council their tails are up and are no doubt keen to try and "sneak through the middle" in St Michaels. The Lib Dems are struggling, with the discredited Sharon Green of Facebook fame their only councillor in the ward, they also have to deliver an apology mid way through the campaign, for the defamation of our two councillors, a story I discussed on an earlier post.
However, we cannot take a single vote for granted and elections are only won with hard work and committed activism. Even a councillor as popular as John Coyne needs support if he is to get re-elected. I'd therefore ask all North West members to get in touch to offer support to help us win this seat again, not just narrowly but with a convincing majority. We'll gladly welcome your donations and your good wishes, but most of all we need your time. Election campaigns need bodies on the ground, particularly now.
You can get in touch with me on this blog, on Facebook or through petercranie@gmail.com - don't just sit it out as a spectator. We narrowly missed out on a third council seat last year and one thing we know for certain is that election campaigns need support. Get involved and help make May 5th the day we elect John for another four year term.
And if you don't believe me, these are the words of one of John's political opponents, Warren Bradley, leader of the Lib Dem group in Liverpool, published by the Liverpool Daily Post on the 8th June 2009:
"If you work hard in your community you will not lose." Cllr Bradley uses Liberal leader Steve Radford and Green leader John Coyne as examples of people who command personal followings because they work hard.
We put a tremendous amount of collective work into St Michaels ward over that year, knowing that John was an underdog candidate fighting for re-election against a Lib Dem dominated council who were very keen to get rid of him. After some shenanigans during the election campaign and some outstanding work from our team, in particular "The Inconvenient Truth" rapid response leaflet we put out when the Lib Dems were working hard to pretend it was a contest between just them and Labour certainly helped, but it was John's personal profile, his history as a ward councillor in Dingle since 2002 and St Michaels since 2004 that swung things our way. John was re-elected with a comfortable majority.
Since 2007 John has been the leading source of ideas and inspiration for Green politics in Liverpool, handing over the responsibility of group leader to our other excellent Green councillor in St Michaels, Sarah Jennings (elected 2008). He's led from the front, taken tough decisions when required and shaken up a sometimes sterile Liverpool political scene.
If you want to read about everything that has been done in that time, the Liverpool Green Party website has an excellent news archive, with press release and news report, following press release and news report of the good work that both John and Sarah have done in the area.
In every one of the four local elections in St Michaels since 2006, the Labour Party has finished in third place. Even last year, with the huge boost of a General Election turnout, Labour were still only third, but after winning back the council their tails are up and are no doubt keen to try and "sneak through the middle" in St Michaels. The Lib Dems are struggling, with the discredited Sharon Green of Facebook fame their only councillor in the ward, they also have to deliver an apology mid way through the campaign, for the defamation of our two councillors, a story I discussed on an earlier post.
However, we cannot take a single vote for granted and elections are only won with hard work and committed activism. Even a councillor as popular as John Coyne needs support if he is to get re-elected. I'd therefore ask all North West members to get in touch to offer support to help us win this seat again, not just narrowly but with a convincing majority. We'll gladly welcome your donations and your good wishes, but most of all we need your time. Election campaigns need bodies on the ground, particularly now.
You can get in touch with me on this blog, on Facebook or through petercranie@gmail.com - don't just sit it out as a spectator. We narrowly missed out on a third council seat last year and one thing we know for certain is that election campaigns need support. Get involved and help make May 5th the day we elect John for another four year term.
And if you don't believe me, these are the words of one of John's political opponents, Warren Bradley, leader of the Lib Dem group in Liverpool, published by the Liverpool Daily Post on the 8th June 2009:
"If you work hard in your community you will not lose." Cllr Bradley uses Liberal leader Steve Radford and Green leader John Coyne as examples of people who command personal followings because they work hard.
Greens Set to Gain First Regional Seat in NSW - How AV could enable a second breakthrough in Norwich South
With 90% of the votes counted, it looks like the Greens are going to finish in 2nd place on first preference votes in the Balmain constituency in the New South Wales state election in Australia. More on the overall results from Jim Jepps, but this is an unashamed trainspotting post for those still thinking about the implications of AV.
As things currently stand (about a week after the counting began), the votes are as follows:
Coalition 14,857
Greens 14,015
Labor 13,770
Others (5) approx 3,000 votes
It is the race for 2nd place on first preferences that matters in this seat, as it did when the Greens broke through into the Australian national parliament last year. Under First Past the Post, the Coalition candidate would be sneaking home due to a split vote between the Greens and Labor in this seat, with around 31% of the vote (the same percentage we gained to win Brighton Pavilion in 2010). Under AV, Green/Labor swing voters in Balmain have been able to vote Green with a first preference vote because they were free to do so, knowing that they could preference Labor if the Greens remained the 3rd placed party.
After preferences start getting allocated, with the "run off" effectively between the Greens and Coalition, the current totals are:
Green 18,674
Coalition 17,128
Not everyone who voted Labor, or for one of the other parties, will have preferenced the Greens (or the Coalition candidate), but 4,000+ have done so and made clear that they would prefer a Green to a Coalition MP. Hence the likely outcome of a single Green MP in the NSW Parliament (despite a 10%+ level of state wide support).
AV doesn't eliminate tactical voting, but it does allow preferences to be expressed, so should Britain adopt AV for General Elections, we as Greens should expect the following:
- More people willing to vote for us with their first preference vote (evidence - higher level of Green support at PR elections already when voters are confident a Green vote will count):
- A deposit saving level of Green support in 300 to 400 constituencies in the UK, which will be worth £150,000 to £200,000 of funding to us per election
- A substantial increase in Short money (state funded political funds to support MPs in Parliament) assuming we retain Caroline Lucas in Parliament
If anyone disagrees with any of these three conclusions, I'd be interested to hear your reasoning.
But what intrigues me is the impact of AV in Norwich South (or a successor constituency). The Lib Dem MP won there with 29% of the vote and we were fourth with 15%. That is not a massive gap. I think AV will lead to the following:
- "Scared" Labour and Lib Dem voters in 2010, who are much more inclined to vote Green at local and European elections in Norwich, will mean our first preference vote will increase from 15% to the 23 to 28% range
- Tactical votes from Conservative voters to the Lib Dems in 2010 will return back to the Conservatives under a preference system
It seems pretty clear to me that the key to a Green win in Norwich will be to get into the top two positions but they'll need a bigger margin than the Balmain Greens have managed. Those who remain as Lib Dem voters in 2015 will be much more inclined to 2nd preference the Conservatives than other parties. Once Lib Dem votes transfer to other parties it will be who is in 2nd place out of the Greens and Tories who'll decide whether Labour regain the seat or not.
A Green 2nd place will mean a close contest between Labour and the Greens under AV. A Conservative 2nd place will mean a comfortable Labour win. And yes, all this does mean that I think that the Liberal Democrats, with a sitting MP in Norwich South, will drop from 1st place last year to 4th in 2015. It may even happen elsewhere under AV, and I'll be looking at a couple of other constituencies after the local election results have come in.
While I'd prefer to see the incredible work done by our party in Norwich rewarded with an outright victory, both on first and second preferences (and that can't be ruled out, particularly if the local Labour Party makes a mess of running the council), AV gives us more a fairer chance of getting a second MP into Parliament in four years time.
As things currently stand (about a week after the counting began), the votes are as follows:
Coalition 14,857
Greens 14,015
Labor 13,770
Others (5) approx 3,000 votes
It is the race for 2nd place on first preferences that matters in this seat, as it did when the Greens broke through into the Australian national parliament last year. Under First Past the Post, the Coalition candidate would be sneaking home due to a split vote between the Greens and Labor in this seat, with around 31% of the vote (the same percentage we gained to win Brighton Pavilion in 2010). Under AV, Green/Labor swing voters in Balmain have been able to vote Green with a first preference vote because they were free to do so, knowing that they could preference Labor if the Greens remained the 3rd placed party.
After preferences start getting allocated, with the "run off" effectively between the Greens and Coalition, the current totals are:
Green 18,674
Coalition 17,128
Not everyone who voted Labor, or for one of the other parties, will have preferenced the Greens (or the Coalition candidate), but 4,000+ have done so and made clear that they would prefer a Green to a Coalition MP. Hence the likely outcome of a single Green MP in the NSW Parliament (despite a 10%+ level of state wide support).
AV doesn't eliminate tactical voting, but it does allow preferences to be expressed, so should Britain adopt AV for General Elections, we as Greens should expect the following:
- More people willing to vote for us with their first preference vote (evidence - higher level of Green support at PR elections already when voters are confident a Green vote will count):
- A deposit saving level of Green support in 300 to 400 constituencies in the UK, which will be worth £150,000 to £200,000 of funding to us per election
- A substantial increase in Short money (state funded political funds to support MPs in Parliament) assuming we retain Caroline Lucas in Parliament
If anyone disagrees with any of these three conclusions, I'd be interested to hear your reasoning.
But what intrigues me is the impact of AV in Norwich South (or a successor constituency). The Lib Dem MP won there with 29% of the vote and we were fourth with 15%. That is not a massive gap. I think AV will lead to the following:
- "Scared" Labour and Lib Dem voters in 2010, who are much more inclined to vote Green at local and European elections in Norwich, will mean our first preference vote will increase from 15% to the 23 to 28% range
- Tactical votes from Conservative voters to the Lib Dems in 2010 will return back to the Conservatives under a preference system
It seems pretty clear to me that the key to a Green win in Norwich will be to get into the top two positions but they'll need a bigger margin than the Balmain Greens have managed. Those who remain as Lib Dem voters in 2015 will be much more inclined to 2nd preference the Conservatives than other parties. Once Lib Dem votes transfer to other parties it will be who is in 2nd place out of the Greens and Tories who'll decide whether Labour regain the seat or not.
A Green 2nd place will mean a close contest between Labour and the Greens under AV. A Conservative 2nd place will mean a comfortable Labour win. And yes, all this does mean that I think that the Liberal Democrats, with a sitting MP in Norwich South, will drop from 1st place last year to 4th in 2015. It may even happen elsewhere under AV, and I'll be looking at a couple of other constituencies after the local election results have come in.
While I'd prefer to see the incredible work done by our party in Norwich rewarded with an outright victory, both on first and second preferences (and that can't be ruled out, particularly if the local Labour Party makes a mess of running the council), AV gives us more a fairer chance of getting a second MP into Parliament in four years time.
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