The latest IPSOS-MORI poll for Reuters gives us our joint highest national poll rating in the last 10 years at 6%.
Labour 42%
Tories 35%
Lib Dems 10%
Greens 6%
SNP/PC 4%
UKIP 2%
BNP 1%
It is not coincidence. The high profile of our leader, Caroline Lucas, as the first Green MP is having an impact on public consciousness. It also follows on from elections where we had a record number of candidates for this particular date in the electoral cycle and the fact that we ended the election with 130 councillors in 43 local authorities.
So each and every one of us who stood as candidates or helped a Green councillor get elected should be proud of what we’ve done so far, but the challenge is just starting. The recent defections of two councillors in Solihull and Milton Keynes (ex Lib Dem and ex Labour respectively) show that we are the principled alternative from the left to the centre of British politics. What is vital is that increasingly in every ward and every seat at Westminster, we field candidates, and that means byelections too.
26 May 2011
20 May 2011
Former Lib Dem* councillors
* Insert party here
Well done to all the Green councillors who were elected in England. We ended the week of 6th May with 130 elected principle authority councillors on 43 different councils. This is our highest ever total and we will improve on it again next year.
We should not get ahead of ourselves. We are still very small compared to the red, yellow and blue totals nationwide, but we are by far the biggest of all of the others, despite some hype about UKIP this time. The Lib Dems took a hammering in the northern cities and lost over 700 seats. Before the results came in, the general consensus was that 600 losses would be disastrous.
Just two weeks on from the elections, our councillor numbers are now up to 132. Firstly we've had an independent councillor in Solihull join us, welcome to Howard Allen, and today to Liz Campbell from Independent (formerly Labour) to Green in Milton Keynes.
That is two defections in two weeks. No one expects that rate to stay as high as it is, but it would be reasonable to suggest that there will be more people, including councillors currently sitting with other parties or as independents, who will join us in the coming year. What are their prospects for re-election as Greens?
Liberal Democrat councillors with a good reputation for local representation and a social and environmental conscience, who genuinely feel that their party has moved away from them, should not worry about joining the Greens. The same is true for independents or Labour councillors, and even in opposition, Labour members are still coming across to us.
Here in Liverpool, John Coyne left the Lib Dems over a matter of principle in 2006, as he opposed a pathfinder initiative that threatened the homes of people in Liverpool. He joined the Greens. He was re-elected as a Green councillor in 2007 with 38% of the vote, and has been re-elected again this year with over 50% of the vote. This is a resounding success for us, and here in Liverpool, John has been transformative for our local party.
In Middlesborough, Joe Mishna joined the Greens in 2007 and has just been re-elected as a Green councillor. In Totnes, Robert Vint left the Lib Dems last year and has just been re-elected.
No current Liberal Democrat/Independent/Other out there who is considering defection will be under any illusion that re-election as a councillor is going to be more difficult if you join the Greens instead of LabLibCon with their established party machines. That in itself is a healthy indicator that when individuals are choosing to join the Greens in the coming months, they are doing so for the right reasons.
Usually there are different prospects for different individuals. Someone with less than a year to go before re-election faces an uphill task to get re-elected. If they have two or three years left of their term, the prospects are far better. However, for Liberal Democrat councillors, things are different.
Popular local Lib Dem councillors in Liverpool, like Paul Clein, were swept out on a wave of anti-government sentiment. That will still be there next year, and arguably may have grown even stronger in the meantime. Across the north, you've got examples of "paper candidates" from the Greens polling better than Lib Dem candidates who put out leaflets and ran a campaign.
With the miserable little compromise that was AV (and yes, I still voted for it as it was fractionally better than FPTP in my opinion) now passed by, a lot of Liberal Democrat councillors will be considering their positions. I think we'll see a few more join us.
Well done to all the Green councillors who were elected in England. We ended the week of 6th May with 130 elected principle authority councillors on 43 different councils. This is our highest ever total and we will improve on it again next year.
We should not get ahead of ourselves. We are still very small compared to the red, yellow and blue totals nationwide, but we are by far the biggest of all of the others, despite some hype about UKIP this time. The Lib Dems took a hammering in the northern cities and lost over 700 seats. Before the results came in, the general consensus was that 600 losses would be disastrous.
Just two weeks on from the elections, our councillor numbers are now up to 132. Firstly we've had an independent councillor in Solihull join us, welcome to Howard Allen, and today to Liz Campbell from Independent (formerly Labour) to Green in Milton Keynes.
That is two defections in two weeks. No one expects that rate to stay as high as it is, but it would be reasonable to suggest that there will be more people, including councillors currently sitting with other parties or as independents, who will join us in the coming year. What are their prospects for re-election as Greens?
Liberal Democrat councillors with a good reputation for local representation and a social and environmental conscience, who genuinely feel that their party has moved away from them, should not worry about joining the Greens. The same is true for independents or Labour councillors, and even in opposition, Labour members are still coming across to us.
Here in Liverpool, John Coyne left the Lib Dems over a matter of principle in 2006, as he opposed a pathfinder initiative that threatened the homes of people in Liverpool. He joined the Greens. He was re-elected as a Green councillor in 2007 with 38% of the vote, and has been re-elected again this year with over 50% of the vote. This is a resounding success for us, and here in Liverpool, John has been transformative for our local party.
In Middlesborough, Joe Mishna joined the Greens in 2007 and has just been re-elected as a Green councillor. In Totnes, Robert Vint left the Lib Dems last year and has just been re-elected.
No current Liberal Democrat/Independent/Other out there who is considering defection will be under any illusion that re-election as a councillor is going to be more difficult if you join the Greens instead of LabLibCon with their established party machines. That in itself is a healthy indicator that when individuals are choosing to join the Greens in the coming months, they are doing so for the right reasons.
Usually there are different prospects for different individuals. Someone with less than a year to go before re-election faces an uphill task to get re-elected. If they have two or three years left of their term, the prospects are far better. However, for Liberal Democrat councillors, things are different.
Popular local Lib Dem councillors in Liverpool, like Paul Clein, were swept out on a wave of anti-government sentiment. That will still be there next year, and arguably may have grown even stronger in the meantime. Across the north, you've got examples of "paper candidates" from the Greens polling better than Lib Dem candidates who put out leaflets and ran a campaign.
With the miserable little compromise that was AV (and yes, I still voted for it as it was fractionally better than FPTP in my opinion) now passed by, a lot of Liberal Democrat councillors will be considering their positions. I think we'll see a few more join us.
7 May 2011
Liverpool Round Up
It was a good night for the Liverpool Green Party on Thursday. Across the city we polled 6% of the vote (just 0.06% behind the Tories), so we just missed out on becoming the third party in terms of vote share. Full results listing is here. Our great success was seeing John Coyne re-elected in St Michaels ward. The result was:
Green 1978 (50%)
Labour 1341 (34%)
Lib Dem 326 (8%)
Tories 143 (4%)
Others 130 (4%)
Well done John and to everyone that helped. This year I was a very small part of the team due to my family commitments, but I am delighted to have helped.
Of the 30 wards up for re-election, the Lib Dems only won 2, holding Woolton and Church. Labour won 26, retaining all their seats, and sweeping away many senior Lib Dems. These included Paul Clein in Greenbank, the subject of an earlier posting. Back in December, he wrote the Guardian and it looked like he might resign from the Liberal Democrats. He didn't and his record as a local councillor counted for very little as people voted against the coalition and returned a Labour councillor for the first time in a great many years.
Had Paul Clein stood to retain his seat as an independent, he'd have done a lot better. There was some discussion in the Greens about that possibility. We've had our differences in the past with both Paul and Jan Clein, but as I hinted at the time, there would have been a few of us in the party willing to argue the case for standing down and supporting him had he chosen that route. It would then have gone to a vote of the local party. Having chosen to seek re-election as a Lib Dem and having seen that party pull out of the joint budget agreement at the 11th hour, I think that avenue is now closed. He has been very gracious in defeat and spoken a lot of sense about the Lib Dem brand now being "toxic" in Liverpool (and Manchester and a host of other places...) and I agree with those who say that the result he saw was unfair to a councillor that has worked hard and served his ward very well for over 20 years.
Other senior Lib Dems have fallen around the city. Steve Radford's Liberal Party very comfortably held their seat in Tuebrook and Stoneycroft. The Conservatives failed to make any significant inroads towards winning a seat in Woolton or elsewhere.
Strangely, we've found ourselves in the position of also having finished in 2nd place in a couple of wards in Liverpool this time, albeit in wards with absolutely crushingly big Labour majorities. These were Princes Park and Central. In Riverside, where I stood albeit as a largely "paper" candidate this time, we were in 4th but just 5 votes behind the 2nd place Tories.
Our meeting is on Monday and I'm sure the campaign to defend Sarah Jenning's seat in next year's election will start immediately. The Lib Dems might be finished as a force in the ward, having dropped from a surprise "Cleggmania" win for Sharon Green (now an Independent) to a dismal 3rd place, but Labour will be looking to expand further. With the Lib Dems likely offering so little resistance, the red machine will have the time and the money to work St Michaels very hard over the next 12 months. We'll have our work cut out for us, but 1978 votes is a new record level of support, and we'll be confident of success again.
Green 1978 (50%)
Labour 1341 (34%)
Lib Dem 326 (8%)
Tories 143 (4%)
Others 130 (4%)
Well done John and to everyone that helped. This year I was a very small part of the team due to my family commitments, but I am delighted to have helped.
Of the 30 wards up for re-election, the Lib Dems only won 2, holding Woolton and Church. Labour won 26, retaining all their seats, and sweeping away many senior Lib Dems. These included Paul Clein in Greenbank, the subject of an earlier posting. Back in December, he wrote the Guardian and it looked like he might resign from the Liberal Democrats. He didn't and his record as a local councillor counted for very little as people voted against the coalition and returned a Labour councillor for the first time in a great many years.
Had Paul Clein stood to retain his seat as an independent, he'd have done a lot better. There was some discussion in the Greens about that possibility. We've had our differences in the past with both Paul and Jan Clein, but as I hinted at the time, there would have been a few of us in the party willing to argue the case for standing down and supporting him had he chosen that route. It would then have gone to a vote of the local party. Having chosen to seek re-election as a Lib Dem and having seen that party pull out of the joint budget agreement at the 11th hour, I think that avenue is now closed. He has been very gracious in defeat and spoken a lot of sense about the Lib Dem brand now being "toxic" in Liverpool (and Manchester and a host of other places...) and I agree with those who say that the result he saw was unfair to a councillor that has worked hard and served his ward very well for over 20 years.
Other senior Lib Dems have fallen around the city. Steve Radford's Liberal Party very comfortably held their seat in Tuebrook and Stoneycroft. The Conservatives failed to make any significant inroads towards winning a seat in Woolton or elsewhere.
Strangely, we've found ourselves in the position of also having finished in 2nd place in a couple of wards in Liverpool this time, albeit in wards with absolutely crushingly big Labour majorities. These were Princes Park and Central. In Riverside, where I stood albeit as a largely "paper" candidate this time, we were in 4th but just 5 votes behind the 2nd place Tories.
Our meeting is on Monday and I'm sure the campaign to defend Sarah Jenning's seat in next year's election will start immediately. The Lib Dems might be finished as a force in the ward, having dropped from a surprise "Cleggmania" win for Sharon Green (now an Independent) to a dismal 3rd place, but Labour will be looking to expand further. With the Lib Dems likely offering so little resistance, the red machine will have the time and the money to work St Michaels very hard over the next 12 months. We'll have our work cut out for us, but 1978 votes is a new record level of support, and we'll be confident of success again.
5 May 2011
St Michaels - Green Hold
I've left the count early, as you'd expect given Hughie is still less than a month old and it would be selfish to leave my wife to manage the whole night by herself...
The good news is that we won 5 out of 5 polling districts according to our sampling, so it will be a comfortable hold for us. Full details to follow at lunchtime tomorrow.
The Lib Dems are projected to lose 12 out of the 13 seats they were defending, with only Richard Kemp managing to hold onto his seat.
The good news is that we won 5 out of 5 polling districts according to our sampling, so it will be a comfortable hold for us. Full details to follow at lunchtime tomorrow.
The Lib Dems are projected to lose 12 out of the 13 seats they were defending, with only Richard Kemp managing to hold onto his seat.
4 May 2011
Predictions
Nothing specific about us I'm afraid, as people could accuse me of having some form of knowledge about postal votes, but it does seem that the Lib Dems could be down to between 23 and 26 seats in Liverpool when the polls close tomorrow.
In what was once an unassailable ward for the Lib Dems, Church, where we live, Labour have delivered two leaflets today, with one reproducing the embarrassing story run by the Sunday Express about Cllr Richard Kemp. In response, the Lib Dems have rolled out former cllr Colin Eldridge, to ask people to vote for him. If he holds on tomorrow night it will be by a very narrow margin. Greenbank, Wavertree and Cressington are also ones to watch tomorrow, although to lose Cressington would be disastrous for the Lib Dems.
Finally, one thing I have learned in this campaign, from a "senior Lib Dem". Although Paul Twigger was named on the leaflet that slandered two Green councillors, as one or two of us have suspected, he didn't actually write the stuff. So he has listened to some bad advice and taken the flak for someone else (I wonder who????) - not the brightest thing to do given that publicity almost certainly will cost him his seat tomorrow night.
Big GOTV day tomorrow for us in St Michaels, so off to bed now!
In what was once an unassailable ward for the Lib Dems, Church, where we live, Labour have delivered two leaflets today, with one reproducing the embarrassing story run by the Sunday Express about Cllr Richard Kemp. In response, the Lib Dems have rolled out former cllr Colin Eldridge, to ask people to vote for him. If he holds on tomorrow night it will be by a very narrow margin. Greenbank, Wavertree and Cressington are also ones to watch tomorrow, although to lose Cressington would be disastrous for the Lib Dems.
Finally, one thing I have learned in this campaign, from a "senior Lib Dem". Although Paul Twigger was named on the leaflet that slandered two Green councillors, as one or two of us have suspected, he didn't actually write the stuff. So he has listened to some bad advice and taken the flak for someone else (I wonder who????) - not the brightest thing to do given that publicity almost certainly will cost him his seat tomorrow night.
Big GOTV day tomorrow for us in St Michaels, so off to bed now!
3 May 2011
Yes to AV, then Yes to PR – a Canada inspired posting
I’m delighted the Elizabeth May has been elected as the first ever Green MP in Canada. It mirrors the success of Caroline Lucas in the UK (also under FPTP) and Adam Bandt in Australia (a breakthrough under AV).
Let’s have a look at the overall results:
Conservatives 39.6%
NDP 30.6%
Liberals 18.9%
Bloc Quebec 6.1%
Green 3.9%
This is a timely reminder that under FPTP even a vote of 4% nationally translates into just 1 seat (0.3% share) for the Greens, while just under 40% of the popular vote has given the Canadian Conservatives 54% of the seats. A minority of votes but as a single party winning they take all the power. Is that fair?
It might be simple. It might be how a horse race works but it is not a fair system. For those of you, who like me, grew up in the 1980s let me just give you a quick reminder of the figures in our own elections.
1983
Conservatives 42.4%
Labour 27.6%
Alliance 25.4%
1987
Conservatives 42.2%
Labour 30.8%
Alliance 22.6%
In 1983 42% of the vote gave the Tories 61% of the seats and in 1987 the same share gave them 58% of the seats. If you are like me, you will remember the anger and frustration living in a country where a dominant minority imposed their will on our political system for a generation.
One of the rallying cries of the No2AV, Yes to PR supporters has been that AV can deliver even more disproportionate results. It can and in 1997 it would have done so. The Labour landslide would have been an avalanche, but it wouldn’t have affected the 1980s results by much at all.
But the politics in any country is about more than just the voting system. Under FPTP, the Conservatives in Canada were reduced from 169 seats to just 2 in the 1993 election, despite winning 16% of the vote. The Liberal victors in that election gained 32% of the vote but got a whopping 60% of the seats. As we’ve seen in the election results across the water last night, with the emergence of the NDP as the biggest opposition party, Canadian politics is more fluid than our own.
In the UK, even with their worst election results in the last 30 years, both Labour and the Tories continued to win a very large number of seats. Our political culture will continue to be dominated by these two parties until we force them to accept a genuinely proportional voting system.
The Liberal Democrats, even with AV, will struggle to win more seats because as a party of government they can no longer face both ways – we’ll see that in the results of the proportional Scottish elections and FPTP local elections on 5th May as Lib Dems in the northern areas, who have relied on attracting tactical or floating left wing voters, take a hammering.
So why am I going to vote for the change and for AV on Thursday? AV alone is not the prize in this referendum. The prize is electoral change on a national level for this generation. It is the freedom of people to begin to think outside of “football” politics where you support the reds or the blues depending on how your family brought you up. It is the end to the two party system and the beginnings of European democracy.
I expect this vote to be a lot tighter than the polls are predicting. A vote for Yes will make further change inevitable. As increasing number of people express first preferences for parties other than the red, yellows and blues, the system will be blown wide open. AV will make way for a more proportional system.
For genuine progressives in Labour, typified by those far sighted people in Compass who are pursuing a more pluralist and inclusive approach, there is nothing to fear from the changes that will come. For the dinosaurs, like David Blunkett and John Reid, and the safe seaters, like Hazel Blears, the thought of change clearly terrifies them.
Winning the referendum, however narrowly, will mean healthier and more diverse politics. A defeat will kick anything other than modest reform of the Lords (and you can predict just how keen the current incumbents will be about change) into the long grass for many years to come. If it is lost, I will be disappointed but not surprised.
No2AV, Yes to PR may peel off enough pro-reform voters to win it for the dinosaurs. It is one area where the AV campaigners have been afraid to tread for fear of leaving themselves open to attack. With 36 hours left, it is a last chance to make the point that you can vote for AV not because you like it, but because it is a step away from FPTP and two party dominance. Yes2AV, then Yes to PR anyone?
Let’s have a look at the overall results:
Conservatives 39.6%
NDP 30.6%
Liberals 18.9%
Bloc Quebec 6.1%
Green 3.9%
This is a timely reminder that under FPTP even a vote of 4% nationally translates into just 1 seat (0.3% share) for the Greens, while just under 40% of the popular vote has given the Canadian Conservatives 54% of the seats. A minority of votes but as a single party winning they take all the power. Is that fair?
It might be simple. It might be how a horse race works but it is not a fair system. For those of you, who like me, grew up in the 1980s let me just give you a quick reminder of the figures in our own elections.
1983
Conservatives 42.4%
Labour 27.6%
Alliance 25.4%
1987
Conservatives 42.2%
Labour 30.8%
Alliance 22.6%
In 1983 42% of the vote gave the Tories 61% of the seats and in 1987 the same share gave them 58% of the seats. If you are like me, you will remember the anger and frustration living in a country where a dominant minority imposed their will on our political system for a generation.
One of the rallying cries of the No2AV, Yes to PR supporters has been that AV can deliver even more disproportionate results. It can and in 1997 it would have done so. The Labour landslide would have been an avalanche, but it wouldn’t have affected the 1980s results by much at all.
But the politics in any country is about more than just the voting system. Under FPTP, the Conservatives in Canada were reduced from 169 seats to just 2 in the 1993 election, despite winning 16% of the vote. The Liberal victors in that election gained 32% of the vote but got a whopping 60% of the seats. As we’ve seen in the election results across the water last night, with the emergence of the NDP as the biggest opposition party, Canadian politics is more fluid than our own.
In the UK, even with their worst election results in the last 30 years, both Labour and the Tories continued to win a very large number of seats. Our political culture will continue to be dominated by these two parties until we force them to accept a genuinely proportional voting system.
The Liberal Democrats, even with AV, will struggle to win more seats because as a party of government they can no longer face both ways – we’ll see that in the results of the proportional Scottish elections and FPTP local elections on 5th May as Lib Dems in the northern areas, who have relied on attracting tactical or floating left wing voters, take a hammering.
So why am I going to vote for the change and for AV on Thursday? AV alone is not the prize in this referendum. The prize is electoral change on a national level for this generation. It is the freedom of people to begin to think outside of “football” politics where you support the reds or the blues depending on how your family brought you up. It is the end to the two party system and the beginnings of European democracy.
I expect this vote to be a lot tighter than the polls are predicting. A vote for Yes will make further change inevitable. As increasing number of people express first preferences for parties other than the red, yellows and blues, the system will be blown wide open. AV will make way for a more proportional system.
For genuine progressives in Labour, typified by those far sighted people in Compass who are pursuing a more pluralist and inclusive approach, there is nothing to fear from the changes that will come. For the dinosaurs, like David Blunkett and John Reid, and the safe seaters, like Hazel Blears, the thought of change clearly terrifies them.
Winning the referendum, however narrowly, will mean healthier and more diverse politics. A defeat will kick anything other than modest reform of the Lords (and you can predict just how keen the current incumbents will be about change) into the long grass for many years to come. If it is lost, I will be disappointed but not surprised.
No2AV, Yes to PR may peel off enough pro-reform voters to win it for the dinosaurs. It is one area where the AV campaigners have been afraid to tread for fear of leaving themselves open to attack. With 36 hours left, it is a last chance to make the point that you can vote for AV not because you like it, but because it is a step away from FPTP and two party dominance. Yes2AV, then Yes to PR anyone?
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