Electoral Reform Society European Election Poll

I have to admit to be being pleasantly surprised by the findings of a substantial poll conducted by YouGov on behalf of the Electoral Reform Society. They asked 8000 representative people how they would vote in an Open and Closed list European Election. The results were as follows:

Labour 30%
UKIP 25%
Conservatives 23%
Greens 12%
Lib Dems 10%

Now this is not a typical poll because they offered only five options, which ignores that the BNP and other parties gained nearly 15% of the vote in 2009. Even if you adjust the figures to allow for the same vote for "others" in 2014, the results would be (hat tip to the www.votetalk.co.uk website):

Lab 25.5%
UKIP 21.25%
Con 19.5%
Green 10.2%
LD 8.5%

These latter poll ratings would be at the most cautious end of the range, given that the BNP are likely to poll substantially worse than they did in 2009. The implications for us are very positive. In the North West, we would win a Euro seat. We were very close last time, just 0.3% away and we would gain a seat, with the Lib Dems struggling to hold onto their seat, and Nick Griffin definitely losing his.

The poll also confirms what I have been saying for a long time. This election is about collapsing the coalition. A Euro Election where the Conservatives finish 3rd, behind Labour and UKIP, with the Lib Dems finishing 5th behind the Greens, will finish things off early in the coalition government, as MPs in the latter party scramble to save their seats in 2015. Votes for the Greens, especially from former Lib Dem voters, will help topple this awful coalition. I just wish the main opposition had not just promised to stick with their spending plans for first year of any new government.

What I Learned About Rural Affairs on Holiday

A week is a long time in politics. A lot has happened and there is so much to blog about. However I’ll restart my posts after my holiday with some things I have learned.

We’ve been on holiday in the Lake District last week. It was fantastic. Our boys loved it and we were fortunate to enjoy some very good weather. The camping experience was excellent, with some wonderful neighbouring campers and lots of the kids running about until late at night. I’m delighted we’ve offered support to the regional economy there, rather than abroad, but I’ve also learned a few things that I’m going to share with you now.

One quarter of farming families are in poverty.

The average age of farmer in the UK is 58.

60,000 new entrants are needed to maintain farming in Britain.

Speak to a Eurosceptic and they’ll no doubt point to the Common Agricultural Policy as a huge burden on the British taxpayer. They simply won’t care that some livestock and dairy farmers in the North West are earning as little as £8,000 a year. Without the CAP thousands of farmers would be forced from the land, and lead to the loss of the rural Britain we know and love.

There are some good news stories though. Solar farms, wind turbines and renewable energy are proving to be a new source of income for farmers. In a survey of 700 farmers by Forum for the Future reported by Farmers’ Weekly, 40% of respondents were making use of renewable energy, with 61% of those not yet involved, planning to invest in it.

I’m heartened that rural areas are actually ahead of their urban counterparts in micro scale generation. We have a long way to go, but farmers are acutely aware that as the climate changes cause more extreme weather, they can also be at the front line in tackling it.

But I'm focused now not only on those struggling in urban areas, but the rural communities who are really struggling with the cuts imposed by this government. I'll do what I can as an MEP to work on their behalf as well.

Good, Bad and Ugly Council Meeting in Liverpool

This is a guest post from Cllr John Coyne, Green Group leader on Liverpool City Council, reporting back on yesterday's council meeting.

Firstly I'll start with the good. Liverpool Labour took three months to complete a U-turn on a decision they got wrong in April of this year, when they voted down our attempt to establish a no-eviction policy and to call for any future government to repeal the bedroom tax legislation. Both of the Liverpool Labour councillors (you know who you are) who spent a great deal of time berating us for "grandstanding" at the time, backed yesterday's motion from the Mayor and our final amendment to it. This is a good thing. Liverpool City Council's position lines up firmly against bedroom tax, and quite rightly, pressure will now build on the Labour Party nationally to move towards a commitment to scrap it. Why Labour in Liverpool took three months to come round to this position, I simply don't know, but they are here now.


Secondly, the bad part. We proposed our supermarket levy for investigation (a very mild proposition), summarised by this line in the motion:

"Council requests the Cabinet member for Finance and Resources to investigate the introduction of a similar [already running in Northern Ireland] scheme for Liverpool."

This was amended to something completely bland, Liverpool Labour's preferred method of voting against sensible motions. To not even investigate this possibility is very bad and it's a slap in the face to the independent shops that are struggling. The one positive is that we've seen them U-turn on the bedroom tax motion and we think they could U-turn on this. The biggest stumbling block to any Green motion being accepted seems to be the Mayor, who simply must be at the centre, in control of and take credit for any progressive policy in the city. While this remains the case, good policy will continue to be delayed.


Finally, the ugly, and there are two elements to this. Liverpool Labour have given their backing to Ed Balls' plans to freeze Labour's spending within the Tory coalition "spending envelope" in 2015/16. What this means is that the first year of any new Labour government will be barely any different from five years of coalition government. I think Labour has got this profoundly wrong.

The second ugly part of council is the incredibly hostile reception that Jake Morrison received from some of his former colleagues. This does the local Labour party no credit, but does make those who might not be entirely happy on the Labour side, think twice about ever leaving. That's one way of ensuring party discipline.

HS2 - Dead and Buried in the Next Two Years

I’ve said something controversial today. HS2 will be dead and buried within 2 years. It won’t be controversial in two years time, it will simply be seen as obvious.

There has been a trickle of U-turns on HS2, most notably from Peter Mandelson, but also from Stephen O’Brien, Tory MP for Eddisbury, who abstained on the vote in Parliament but at a public meeting on 15th July declared himself against. Expect Lib Dems worried about their seats to follow.

The trickle will become a stampede and with the costs already escalating in an alarming manner (and we all know they will continue to soar during the project), the cost / benefit argument from HS2, which is at best unproven, is unsustainable.

UKIP have campaigned vociferously against HS2 on a NIMBY basis, in contradiction to their 2010 manifesto which argued for:
“…three new 200mph-plus high-seed rail lines…This would include a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham.” Well done for the early U-turn but don't expect to be able to take credit for your newly found and politically convenient opposition.

So who got it right on HS2 after a considered and passionate debate by members at Conference? The Green Party – again. At the time it was a lone voice, unpopular in the media or in the public perception. It is good to see that political vision is not a thing of the past.

If HS2 is cancelled now, the coalition would want to simply pocket the difference, although we as tax payers will probably still have to pay out for some ill thought out forward contracts. In the Greens we are arguing that public expenditure is crucial as a way of reviving our economy and decarbonising it. We therefore need to speed up a programme of electrification of existing rail lines, connect up places like Skelmersdale to the rail network and reopen old lines like the Halton Curve.

This is about spending money in a better, greener way. Let’s see if the other parties can get that right.

Greens Announce Liverpool Riverside Parliamentary Candidate

I am delighted to announce that we have selected Martin Dobson as the Green Parliamentary candidate for Liverpool Riverside. I’ve campaigned with him for a number of years in Liverpool and I expect him to take our result in 2015 to a new level for a Parliamentary seat.

Martin is a man of principle. A lot of people in Labour were appalled by the actions of the Blair government in going to war in Iraq. A substantial number of people resigned, but not enough to convince the Cabinet to change course. People argued that if Tony Benn and others would try and change things from within, it would be ok for them to stay too. Make no mistake, had people deserted Labour in much greater numbers, we would not have been tied into an American war that cost us over 6,000 dead and injured service personnel. It may not have averted the hundreds of thousands of appalling civilian deaths in Iraq, but the history could have been different.

Martin was one of those who chose to resign and he joined the Green party, attracted by our policies on nuclear disarmament amongst other things. Since then he has been an activist, working hard on many levels within the Liverpool party. More recently he has also been the Chair of the Save Sefton Park Meadows campaign. He and I have both found it amusing that the Mayor in Liverpool attacked Martin because (shock revelation) – he is a member of the Green Party and leading a campaign group! As the new Green PPC for Liverpool Riverside, his role has changed so Martin will actively continue to support this cross party campaign (which includes supporters of at least four political parties), but will make way for another person to act as Chair.

We both share the experience of formerly being in the Labour Party. We both are passionately in favour of social justice, environmental protection and I think that Martin’s selection as our candidate will really push us forward, not least because Liverpool Riverside has been accepted as the North West’s regional target constituency and has applied for national Advance Constituency status. The last time we benefitted from national election support was in 2005, when we saved our deposit. I expect us to make a massive step up from the 2005 and 2010 results.

The Vote for Policies website surveys voters on the basis of what policies they are most likely to support. Unsurprisingly (to us in the Greens) when people are looking purely at the policies we propose, such as renationalising rail, scrapping Trident nuclear weapons and protecting the NHS, we score highly. In Liverpool Riverside, out the 900+ people surveyed, our policies are actually these most popular.

How have residents voted in Riverside since 2010, since which the coalition government has had the effect of cutting the popularity of Liverpool Liberal Democrats off at the knees:

2011 Local Elections

Labour 65.5%
Greens 14.2%
Lib Dem 10.4%
Tories 4.6%
Others 5.2%

2012 Mayoral Contest

Joe Anderson (Labour) 58.8%
John Coyne (Greens) 12.8%
Liam Fogerty (Ind) 8.7%
Richard Kemp (LD) 4.0%

2012 Local Elections

Labour 71.7%
Greens 17.5%
Tories 4.5%
Lib Dem 4.1%
Others 6.3%

We can simplify this somewhat, although of course, different people vote in different elections. There is a big difference between Local / Mayoral contests and a General Election, but it is clear to us that in the group of 30% of voters who take part in local elections, we are not just slightly, but clearly the second placed party. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives will have to massively outperform us in the 35% who will turn out for a General Election to finish ahead of the Greens.

So we are setting our sights on Labour, and if not 2015, then 2020 to win this seat in Parliament. I think Martin is exactly the right candidate for us and I expect his personal profile and record to help us do very well win the southerly wards in the constituency. We’ll have work to do in Kirkdale, Central and Riverside, but with national support I expect to see us begin to really start to build support throughout the constituency.

The Brief for Labour's Communication Agency (leaked)

I've received the following text that is allegedly a draft brief for the new advertising agency for the Labour Party (see this story for more detail).

7th July 2013: INTERNAL ONLY

Advertising Agency Brief

The Labour Party is seeking a new advertising agency to help them communicate with voters in the run up to the next General Election. This will be a highly sensitive brief and will require an exceptional agency. We’ve got hardworking, committed Labour activists campaigning around the country who need to be able to effectively and succinctly connect with voters who share our values.

One of the key barriers to Labour’s success is the perception that Gordon Brown’s previous government is somehow to blame for the vast economic problems we face. It will be crucial that the agency can convince voters that this is a new Labour Party, while making clear that it is not New Labour.

We have recently experienced difficulties in relation to our links to the unions. The Labour Party is proud of its union links in most Scottish and northern constituencies with healthy Labour majorities and a high proportion of working class voters. However, the Labour Party is also a bit ashamed of its union links in some marginal constituencies in the South (and Falkirk West – but we will try very hard not to speak of this because of the next paragraph).

The agency has to make the party attractive to a wider variety of funding streams. We need to maintain our union funding links, which will require a careful assessment of just how far we can go in ignoring and marginalising union concerns before they stop funding us. We want to attract more corporate donations that we are allowed to keep, like we did in the good old days of the Blair government, although not the Bernie Ecclestone one, so that we are less reliant on union money and can push a bit harder on the marginalisation. However, we really, really want to avoid picking up money from private healthcare providers, as it has been really embarrassing that certain Labour MPs have received payments from them, as we are supposed to be saving the NHS.

We also want you as an agency to consider branding. We definitely still need red, but we also have to include Blue and Yellow Labour. Our hastily developing electoral strategy must also now include Purple Labour, not because of the embarrassment we experienced over that “tax efficient” donation, but because of our formal coalition on Norfolk County Council with UKIP. We need to have a broad church but we have to avoid flying a red flag on it.

There are some key “themes” that we want to put across.

- On immigration, we need the party to come across as tough but fair. For asylum seekers and low wage economic migrants, it will be tough, but for well connected steel magnates from the Indian subcontinent, we’ll be fair.

- The Bedroom Tax will form a key plank of the next General Election campaign. We want to use that plank to hit the Tories and Liberals and show how regressive and damaging the introduction of this has been. However, if elected, we don’t want to walk the plank on this, but instead we need to be able to drop it (although not too noisily).

- Ed Miliband’s is determined to stay within the spending envelope if the country returns a Labour government in 2015. As you will know, we’ve agreed that we will match Tory and Liberal spending plans in the first year of the next parliament. If the country elects us and works out that it is no different to having a Tory government, Ed would like to stay in the envelope for protection, so we need it to be one of the large padded varieties that you can buy from the state owned Post Office.

Which brings us to privatisation. Now we know that it hasn’t exactly been a success, what with soaring energy, transport and water bills. We acknowledge that while in the hands of the government, the East Coast mainline has actually performed better than the privatised franchises. We also have to admit that the Private Finance Initiatives that we really backed have turned out to be a hugely expensive burden for essential services. We are really sorry about that, and it is important to get that across when our own supporters get very angry. However, we will stay true to our principles and therefore you are authorised to contract out this part of the brief to another agency who might even employ interns on no pay and we will pick up the inevitable cost overruns, liabilities and failures when they fail to deliver.

In summary, we need to communicate to the public that Labour is moving forward and making progress, although not Progress in that sense. Although we’ve not entirely lost our Compass, we can’t rely on it for a sense of direction any more, as it seems to be a bit unreliable now and doesn’t necessarily point the way we want it to.

For further information please contact Tom Watson MP (edit need here urgently!)
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Congratulations to Louise Baldock

This is a very short post. Congratulations are in order to Louise Baldock who has been selected as the Labour PPC for Stockton South, which has a Tory majority of 332 and should be one of the first seats Labour wins back in the next election.

Although Louise is a Labour councillor and in a different party from me, she has the right values and track record to be an excellent MP, which I fully expect her to become by June 2015. The House of Commons needs more good people, from whatever party. Louise will make a good representative in Stockton South and I'm really pleased she will hopefully go on to represent the area she has grown up in.