Convergence of Conferences

I liked the coincidence of the Green and Lib Dem conferences. For me our initial burst of coverage has been followed by even more coverage for the Lib Dems. Normally this would be a bad thing, but on this occasion we will benefit from it.

The decisions made by the Lib Dems to endorse both fracking and nuclear power have really ended their “green” credentials with most of the environmental NGOs. There has been a furious reaction and if any mitigation had been expected from a proposed 5p plastic bag tax (that only comes into force in 2015, many months after the non Lib Dem Scottish and Welsh governments introduced it), then there has been none.

It is unsurprising that this decision has been made now that the “gagging” bill on NGO and charity campaigning is progressing through Parliament. The NUS, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace, Hope Not Hate and other organisations who in the past, without endorsing the Lib Dems explicitly, would have probably helped boost their support by comparing policies with Labour / Tories, will no longer be able to campaign in the same way to raise that awareness.

The result is that the Lib Dems, already at a low ebb in terms of their support from voters, have largely accepted a Tory position on a wide range of issues. So the question is – what do we do about it?

The excellent blog from Owen Bennett points the way for Green growth beyond the 10/11% we need to gain four additional Euro seats, but I’d argue that we must be combative in our approach to the Euros, highlighting our distinctiveness. If that means saying we are anti-nuclear and anti-fracking, that is not negative campaigning, it is simply connecting with the millions of voters out there who share our views. We must be ready to outline both our vision to voters and the passion we feel about the core issues that we won't sacrifice.

NW Green Party Euro List Result

The results of the Euro selection for the North West region were counted at Conference on Saturday. North West members have selected six strong candidates to join Gina Dowding and myself on the list. Before I move onto them, I need to first thank the two candidates who didn’t make the list this time.

I am absolutely gutted for Lewis Coyne and Jake Welsh. Both of them have worked really hard in the North West for a number of years. We would not be in as strong a position as we are now without them. They are both Young Greens, and what I will say is that there time will come. They will both be councillors and lead candidates a few years in the future.

Congratulations to the successful candidates on the list:

3. Laura Bannister
4. Deyika Nzeribe
5. Jill Perry
6. Richard English
7. John Knight
8. Ulrike Zeshan

We’ve got candidates who are from Cumbria (the excellent Jill Perry), Cheshire (the hard working John Knight) and everywhere inbetween. The age of our candidate ranges from 28 to 55+. Most importantly, we’ve got some excellent individuals with good experience of campaigning.

A particular thank you goes to Laura and Deyika. I think both of them were very impressive at the Lancaster hustings, with completely different styles, but with powerful messages to share. Laura has also spoken powerfully at this conference.

I look forward to working with all of the candidates for a successful election result in May next year. The North West membership has put their trust in all of us and it is up to us to repay them.

Berger Hands Campaign Gift to Morrison

Yesterday, MP expenses were published detailing the claims made not just by Liverpool MPs, but around the whole country.

Now there are reasons why different MPs might claim different amounts. Most of this will come down to travel which explains the higher claims, in general, of Northern Irish and Scottish MPs.

However, when you get disparities like the one in Oldham, with one MP claiming less than £25,000 and one claiming more than £74,000 then it raises real questions about how the expenses are being used.

Here in Liverpool, the headline figures for the 5 Labour MPs are:

Luciana Berger £49,515
Steve Rotherham £49,133
Louise Ellman £32,978
Stephen Twigg £32,323
Maria Eagle £27,218

The big disparity in Luciana Berger and Steve Rotherham’s claims is for accommodation costs. There might be a good reason for that but it is still hard to understand why their claims can be nearly double those of Maria Eagle’s.

So it is down to Luciana Berger and Steve Rotherham to justify those higher accommodation costs, but as soon as the public sees these figures, in the news or on social media, they will be asking questions. For Jake Morrison, who will be challenging to win Liverpool Wavertree, these expenses will be a gift that will just keep on giving until September next year.

My advice to my current MP is that she needs to think about staying in cheaper accommodation. Like other voters in the constituency I am not impressed.

[All figures for all MPs can be obtained here]

Why Electing a North West Green MEP matters

There are two big Green election success stories this week. Adam Bandt has been re-elected for a second 3 year term as Australia’s only Green MP. Despite a drop in vote share nationally in an election dominated by the prospect of a change of government, effective targeting has also mean that the Greens look like they have gained a further seat in the Senate, Australia's proportional representation upper house. In Norway, congratulations should be shared with Norway's Greens, who have won their first seat in the national parliament (under a proportional system) by gaining 2.8% of the vote.

So what does a single Green MP in a lower house of Parliament achieve? In Caroline Lucas we have an MP that has been prominent in raising issues ignored by the other parties. During the passage of the AV Referendum Bill it was Caroline Lucas (supported by a few others) who asked for the British people not just to choose between a bad system (First Past the Post) and a marginally less bad system (Alternative Vote), but to offer us a genuine vote on proportional representation. It is Caroline Lucas who wholly represents opposition to fracking in our Parliament, who challenges the misogyny of page 3, Caroline who opposes Trident renewal, who proposes rail re-nationalisation and who exposes instruments of torture at a London Arms fair. We'll see her in action again tonight on the BBC's Question Time.

In the UK the effect of a single Green Parliamentary seat raises awareness on all the issues we campaign on. It puts an alternative voice to politics as usual out to a wider audience. But one MP in the South East of the country has limited impact on the North West and our upper house will only have one Green Lord, the recently appointed Jenny Jones. In Australia, the majority of the country has Green representation in the Senate, which has enabled the party to build up its infrastructure and professionalism. Our equivalent is the European Parliament.

The difference electing a Green MEP in the North West will make to us is tremendous. Every single person in the North West will have a Green representative, with a staff team working on their behalf, who will be working to make a practical difference on every issue we can. That can make an elected Green Party a reality for voters in every council area in the North West and can help us get more Greens elected at all levels. The action we need to address Climate Change means we have to do our bit as part of a much wider global movement. The Australian and Norweigan Greens have delivered in 2013. Next year it is our turn, so do help if you can.

A Briton, Australian and Canadian Walk into a Lobby…

Fortunately this is not one of my jokes from the stand up routines I used to do as amateur comedian, many years ago, so you can continue reading. What is common to Britain, Australia and Canada? The answers are Caroline Lucas, Adam Bandt and Elizabeth May. They are all sole Green MPs in their respective parliaments, elected in tough contests in the last round of national elections.

Tomorrow, Adam Bandt’s 3 year term as Australia’s first Green MP comes to an end as Australians re-elect their new parliament, and elect part of their upper house, the Senate. I very much hope that by September 8th we will have learned that he has been successfully re-elected.

So what does a single Green MP in a lower house of Parliament achieve? In Caroline Lucas we have an MP that has been prominent in raising issues ignored by the other parties. During the passage of the AV Referendum Bill it was Caroline Lucas (supported by a few others) who asked for the British people not just to choose between a bad system (First Past the Post) and a marginally less bad system (Alternative Vote), but to offer us a genuine vote on proportional representation. It is Caroline Lucas who wholly represents opposition to fracking in our Parliament, who challenges the misogyny of page 3 and Caroline who opposes Trident renewal and proposes rail re-nationalisation.

In the UK the effect of a single Green Parliamentary seat raises awareness on all the issues we campaign on. It puts an alternative voice to politics as usual out to a wider audience. Occasionally, just occasionally, a single Green vote in either an upper or lower house can make a crucial difference on legislation, as I explained when Jenny Jones was accepted as a nominee to the House of Lords.

Adam Bandt and Elizabeth May have had a similar effect in their own nations. You don’t have to take a partisan view on this to recognise the impact of a single Green MP, as all three have won Parliamentarian / Politician of the year awards, and these are voted for by non-Greens.

Bandt is the first to face re-election in his Melbourne seat. He does so in the face of a hostile majority Murdoch press that would like nothing more than to see the Australian Greens lose this seat and a couple of their upper house senators. Since the 2010 the Liberal/National coalition have preferred Labor to the Greens in their AV recommendations, as they seek to rip the heart out of Australian climate change policy in the next parliament. All that stands between absolute power for the most right wing Prime Minister in Australia’s history is the Greens, and the political establishment know it.

Whatever the result, what we will see is an increase in the number of people who vote Green in Melbourne as their first choice party. In the neighbouring seat of Batman, the Greens might get into second place, ready for a full challenge in 2016. A loss would be a setback, but not the end of the journey for the Australian Greens. Their task is in this circumstance made much harder not by the AV system, but in the uniquely above/below the line voting that allows parties, rather than voters to rank the order of the candidates.

A win for Bandt will mean that the Greens are there to stay in the Australian parliament, with three or four more seats that become winnable next time. I’ll be watching for results from tomorrow evening. We should seek to learn lessons from our Australian counterparts when it comes to the defence of Brighton Pavilion in 2014 or 2015.

Green Party Stop Fracking Now

I'm wishing the best of luck to Shereen Reedman who is standing as the first ever Green Party Stop Fracking Now candidate in a Blackpool byelection to the council. She also was one of the organisers of the recent Mass Sleep Out Blackpool event over the summer, to raise concerns over homelessness and the bedroom tax. There have been well publicised fracking concerns in the area and there has been a lot of work done by Blackpool Green Party and Phil Mitchell in particular, in opposing fracking.

The images of Caroline Lucas getting arrested while protesting at Balcombe have shown that the Greens are the anti-fracking party. However, we need support from anti-fracking activists so we can fight at a political level to stop this becoming a reality up and down the length of Britain.

If you are living close to Blackpool and want to help out in the campaign, please get in touch (email on sidebar). I haven't met Shereen personally, but she sounds like the kind of candidate that as Greens we would hope to be putting forward in every local byelection campaign in the country.

Kick out the legs from under the Coalition

I believe there is an opportunity to bring the coalition government to an end if the Greens get a good result in next May's European Elections. I'll explain my thinking and then I urge all us Greens to put this theory to the test. I might not be proved right, but I think we have an absolute duty to do everything we can to bring this government to an end. We know that Labour have pledged to stick to coalition spending plans in the first year of any administration, so an early election means we could potentially end austerity economics in 2015 rather than waiting for a full term of the coalition, with Labour sticking to their plans until 2016.

It is important to start with a quick reminder of the largest survey so far on Euro Voting intention, commissioned by the Electoral Reform Commission in July. The results from a sample size of 8000 were:

Labour 30%
UKIP 25%
Conservatives 23%
Greens 12%
Lib Dems 10%

If this result was to be repeated, and we'd have to adjust down all five percentages to allow for the BNP and other smaller party votes, it would mean the Lib Dems reduced below 10% in a national election, behind the Greens with just one year left of the coalition. The Conservatives would finish behind UKIP and as expected, Labour would top the poll. So why would UKIP beating the Tories, combined with the Greens beating the Lib Dems, potentially collapse the coalition?

The rise of UKIP has come at the expense not just of the Tories, but also Labour and the Lib Dems, but it is clear that the purple perils are proportionally more damaging to the blues. All of this is going to be put to the test at a General Election. It seems very likely to me that the Tories will hoover back up many of the UKIP votes in a General Election, particularly where they have pledged an In/Out referendum. While the Greens, Lib Dems and UKIPs will make our case for votes under FPTP, the reality is that we will have either a Labour (led) government or a Tory (led) one. That is why our vote in Proportional Elections is so much higher than in General Elections. The main danger for Cameron and his party is that they fail to attract back those UKIP voters.

The first element of destabilisation happens if UKIP achieve second place in the European Elections, beating the Tories. This leaves Cameron with two options. He toughs out a final year as PM knowing that nervous Tories might orchestrate a leadership challenge, or he repeats his response to losing his government proposal on Syria, saying "he gets it" that the country wants a referendum on Europe. He brings forward his timescale for the referendum in 2016 and invites voters to make the choice between Labour and the Conservatives on this issue. In effect, he takes UKIP's success and uses it against them. It is a win-win for the Tories. If they lose the election through the loss of marginal seats, UKIP take the blame.

There are some things that need to happen to make this more likely. Merkel, who seems broadly in agreement with David Cameron about reforming Europe, would have to be re-elected in Germany. Labour would have to stick with their position of not offering a referendum. If they choose to offer one it becomes a non-issue in the election but a big headache for any incoming Labour administration. Finally, UKIP have to avoid completely screwing up in the next eight months, which is by no means certain.

So I'd argue that we have to hit at the weaker link in the coalition. The Lib Dems have been behind UKIP in most polls for the last four months. They seem to have taken that in their stride, reasoning that the "none of the above vote" is well and truly lost. The national leadership have also been able to ignore local Lib Dem councillors being nearly wiped out in a number of councils over a three election cycle, the last of which will coincide with these Euro elections. UKIP beating the Lib Dems in the Euro Elections isn't news, it is expected and it doesn't worry the Lib Dems. In fact, under the D'Hondt system in the 2009 Euros, the Lib Dems lost vote share but gained a seat, because in many ways they benefited from UKIP's increased vote.

However, if the Greens finish ahead of the Lib Dems nationally as the YouGov survey of 8000 voters suggest, they stand to lose more than half their Euro seats in just one election. In the North West, the effect of the Lib Dems losing their seat would be pretty devastating. Couple that with losing all of their remaining Manchester councillors and perhaps being down to just 3 seats in Liverpool, then you have the potential for revolt. The Lib Dems see the Greens as competitors. They see our commitment to Proportional Representation, Social Justice, anti-nuclear weapons stance and the Environment and consider what could have been. The Greens are a far bigger long term threat to their survival. In Australia, the previous centrist third party has been replaced by the Greens, and that is the fear of Liberal Democrats in the UK.

Finishing behind the Greens sets the scene for a leadership challenge in the Lib Dems. Nick Clegg has given up the liberal mantles of free speech (David Miranda) and the anti-war credentials that Charles Kennedy was perceived to stand for. The immediate period after the Euros is the only time for a leadership challenge to Clegg. Should Clegg win, he'll lead them to losses in the next General Election, but a new leader (Tim Farron) might just save some of those marginal seats. That will be a judgement for the remaining Lib Dem members to make.

Any change of leadership in the minority party, will make a return to coalition "business as usual" impossible. I'd expect the Lib Dems to decouple from coalition. This makes it very hard for Cameron to limp on for another year. Labour and the Conservatives together would both vote in Parliament for an election (neither party could afford to be "scared") following the September 2014 Conference season and we'd have an autumn election.

It doesn't change our political objective in the Greens, which is to make several Euro seat gains, starting here in the North West, but it does put our impact in a bigger political context. If you want to help us kick out the coalition starting up here, then support us by visiting Green Action. Elections don't come cheap, but we are determined to make a difference.